2004-2021年南京市突发公共卫生事件流行特征分析  

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies in Nanjing from 2004 to 2021

作　　者：张钟[1] 孙红敏 卞增惠[1] 许阳婷[1] ZHANG Zhong;SUN Hong-min;BIAN Zeng-hui;XU Yang-ting(Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第7期1176-1180,1210,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：南京市重大科技专项(2021—11005)。

摘　　要：目的分析2004—2021年共18年间南京市突发公共卫生事件的流行特征,为制定针对性防控政策和措施提供科学依据。方法收集整理“突发公共卫生事件报告管理信息系统”中南京市2004—2021年上报的数据,运用描述性流行病学方法进行分析。结果2004—2021年南京市共报告突发公共卫生事件302起,95.03%(287起)为传染病类事件,其中首位是水痘(106起),占全部事件的35.10%,其次为其它感染性腹泻、流行性感冒和流行性腮腺炎。Joinpoint分析显示有3个转折点,其中2012—2019年上升变化有统计学意义(t=2.8,P=0.03),1—6月份和9—10月份为突发公共卫生事件平台期,11—12月为高峰月份。南京市突发公共卫生事件空间自相关分析未发现统计学差异(全局Moran I=-0.03,Z=0.58,P=0.56)。未分级事件占比与累计报告事件发生率呈负相关(r=-0.768,P=0.04)。突发公共卫生事件主要发生在学校和托幼机构(217/302,71.85%),不同年份、不同阶段学校的突发公共卫生事件涉及的传染病种类不同。结论南京市突发公共卫生事件在不同年份阶段病种有较大差异,学校是防控的重点场所。应做好跟踪监测和分析,及时掌握突发公共卫生事件特征变化。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Public Health Emergencies(PHEs)in Nanjing from 2004 to 2021,so as to provide a scientific evidence for targeted prevention and control measures in Nanjing city.Methods The data were collected and downloaded from National Public Health Emergency Reporting System and analyzed by descriptive method.Results From 2004 to 2021,a total of 302 PHEs were reported in Nanjing,of which more than 95%(287 PHEs)were infectious disease emergencies,including 106 cases of chickenpox,accounting for 35.10%of the total events,followed by infectious diarrhea,influenza,and mumps PHEs.Join-point analysis showed that there were three turning points,among which the increase from 2012 to 2019 was statistically significant(t=2.8,P=0.03),September to October was the platform period for public health emergencies,and November to December was the peak months.No statistical difference was found in spatial autocorrelation analysis of public health emergencies in Nanjing(global Moran’s I=-0.03,Z=0.58,P=0.56).There was a negative correlation between the proportion of ungraded events and the cumulative incidence of reported events(r=-0.768,P=0.04).Public health emergencies mainly occurred in schools and kindergartens(217/302,71.85%).The types of infectious diseases involved in public health emergencies varied in different years and in schools.Conclusion The types of diseases in different years and stage vary greatly,and schools are the key places for prevention and control.Follow-up monitoring and analysis should be strengthened to keep track of the changes of the characteristics of public health emergencies in time.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 流行病学 学校 传染病 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]