移动流行区间法在西南三省流感流行中的应用研究  

Applied research of the moving epidemic interval method in the influenza epidemic in three southwestern provinces

作　　者：李楠 刘润友[2] 兰亚佳 LI Nan;LIU Run-you;LAN Ya-jia(West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital,Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川成都610041 [2]四川省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第7期1181-1186,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 应用移动流行区间法(moving epidemic method, MEM)制定西南三省(四川、贵州、云南)流感流行阈值以及强度阈值,了解其流感流行特征,为流感的预警提供科学的信息。方法 选择西南三省2010年第40周—2017年第39周流感病毒周阳性检测率数据通过MEM建模,并计算三省流感流行阈值以及强度阈值,评估三省2017年第40周—2018年第39周的流行强度。结果 西南三省甲型流感阳性率为6.89 %,乙型流感的阳性率为3.59 %。其中,贵州省甲型流感阳性率最高,四川省乙型流感阳性率最高,云南省甲乙型流感阳性率均最低。四川、贵州具有双峰分布特征,而云南不具备典型的双峰特征。MEM模型结果显示四川、贵州、云南流行阈值分别为15.49 %、12.13 %、6.4 %;反映模型拟合效果的约登指数分别为0.59、0.76、0.57。结论 MEM模型显示云南省流行阈值及强度阈值低于四川、贵州两省的阈值,本研究建立的省级层面的流感MEM模型可作为今后西南地区流感监测预警的依据。Objective To apply the moving epidemic method(MEM)to development of influenza epidemic thresholds and intensity thresholds in three southwestern provinces(Sichuan,Guizhou,and Yunnan),to understand their influenza epidemic characteristics and provide scientific ground for early warning of influenza.Methods Data on weekly positive detection rates of influenza viruses in the three southwestern provinces from week 40 of 2010 to week 39 of 2017 were selected to calculate influenza epidemic thresholds as well as intensity thresholds in the three provinces from week 40 of 2017 to week 39 of 2018 using MEM modeling to assess epidemic intensity.Results The positive rates of influenza A and influenza B were 6.89%and 3.59%,respectively.The positive rate of influenza A in Guizhou Province was the highest,the positive rate of influenza B in Sichuan Province was the highest,and the positive rates of influenza A and influenza B in Yunnan Province were the lowest.Sichuan and Guizhou showed bimodal distribution characteristics,while Yunnan did not show typical bimodal distribution characteristics.The results of MEM model showed that the epidemic thresholds in Sichuan,Guizhou,and Yunnan were 15.49%,12.13%,and 6.4%,respectively.The Yoden index reflecting the model fitting effect were 0.59,0.76,and 0.57,respectively.Conclusion The MEM model showed that the epidemic threshold and intensity threshold in Yunnan Province were lower than those in Sichuan and Guizhou provinces.The provincial level influenza MEM model established in this study could be used as the basis for influenza surveillance and early warning in Southwest China in the future.

关 键 词：流感 移动流行区间法 流行阈值 流行强度 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R511.7[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]