京津冀地区水-经济-生态系统耦合协调发展模拟  

Simulation of coordinated development of water-economy-ecology system coupling in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：王富强[1,2] 张蒙 吕素冰[1,2] 赵衡[1,2] 应卓晖 WANG Fuqiang;ZHANG Meng;LYU Subing;ZHAO Heng;YING Zhuohui(College of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Key Laboratory of Conservation and Intensive Utilization of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水资源学院,郑州450046 [2]河南省黄河流域水资源节约集约利用重点实验室,郑州450046

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2023年第2期218-232,共15页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279014,51879106);中原科技创新领军人才计划项目(214200510001);河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划项目(20IRTSTHN010);郑州市软科学研究计划重点(重大)项目(2020RKXF0090)。

摘　　要：针对京津冀地区水资源、经济社会和生态环境系统未来可能面临的失衡失稳问题,构建水-经济-生态系统动力学模拟模型,设置开源节流、发展经济、保护环境等5种情景方案,预测京津冀地区水资源、经济社会和生态环境系统指标发展趋势,运用耦合协调度模型模拟京津冀地区2020—2035年不同情景下耦合协调发展趋势。结果表明:2020—2035年5种情景下北京、天津和河北水-经济-生态系统耦合协调度均呈上升趋势,其中延续现状型耦合协调度均最低,开源节流型、发展经济型和保护环境型次之,综合协调型均最高。说明在维持现状发展条件下,京津冀水-经济-生态系统耦合协调发展程度略有增加但变化较小,只有在节约用水和发展经济的同时充分考虑环境保护才能促进区域协调发展;2035年延续现状情景下北京、天津和河北耦合协调发展水平均属于中级耦合协调型,综合协调情景下北京和天津耦合协调发展属于良好耦合协调型,河北省经济发展相对滞后导致耦合协调发展缓慢,仍属于中级耦合协调型,未来应注重京津冀一体化发展。研究可为京津冀地区协调可持续发展提供参考依据。As an organic whole,the system of"water-economy-ecology"complements each other,and the coupled and coordinated development is the premise of realizing high quality regional development.However,as the problem of resource supply and economic development derailment gradually emerged,the phenomenon of multisystem imbalance and regional development imbalance became more serious,which restricted the high-quality development of the region.In view of the imbalance and instability of water resources,economic society and ecological environment system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future,a dynamic simulation model of"water-economyecological"system was constructed,and five scenarios were set up,including open source and reduce expenditure,economic development and environmental protection,to predict the development trend of water resources,economic society and ecological environment system indicators in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The coupling coordination degree model was used to simulate the development trend of coupling coordination under different scenarios in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2020 to 2035.The results show that under five scenarios from 2020 to 2035,the coupling coordination degree of watereconomy-ecological system in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei will all show an increasing trend,among which the coupling coordination degree of the continuation of the status quo will be the lowest,followed by the coupling coordination degree of the open source and expenditure reduction,economic development and environmental protection,and the comprehensive coordination degree will be the highest.It indicates that under the condition of maintaining the current development,the degree of coordinated development of water-economy-ecological system coupling in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increases slightly but changes little.Only when water conservation and economic development are fully considered while environmental protection can regional coordinated development be promoted.Continuation of the status quo i

关 键 词：水-经济-生态系统 系统动力学 耦合协调度模型 发展趋势模拟 京津冀地区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]