黄河下游滩区周边城镇空间扩展特征与驱动机制  

Characteristics of urban land expansion and its mechanism of cities and towns around the floodplain of the Lower Yellow River

作　　者：冯一凡 李翅[1] 李宇[2] 马俊杰 冯君明 FENG Yifan;LI Chi;LI Yu;MA Junjie;FENG Junming(School of Landscape Architecture,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京100083 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理研究》2023年第4期955-976,共22页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51978050);国家住房与城乡建设部科学技术计划项目(2020-k-194);中国国土勘测规划院项目;城乡人居生态环境学(北京高校高精尖学科建设项目)。

摘　　要：在区域一体化及黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略背景下,黄河下游滩区将承担更加多元的生态与社会功能,滩区周边城镇空间进入新的快速成长期。基于城镇空间扩展差异指数、紧凑度、相关维数的定量测算探析2000—2020年黄河下游滩区周边城镇空间扩展格局及形态特征,在此基础上耦合随机森林回归算法与重心-时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型,采用“主成分分析-重要性判断-驱动空间识别”的分析方法对城镇空间扩展时空变化进行驱动机制的多维度解析。结果表明:(1)黄河下游滩区周边地区城镇空间呈圈层式扩展,时空分异与空间溢出特征显著;2005—2010年为高速发展期,此后众多城镇空间重心向靠近黄河与中心城市方向迁移,局部地区城镇空间沿河流方向轴向拓展,区域一体化发展不断加强。(2)研究范围内城镇空间形态在波动变化中不断演进,经历了多点集中式扩展-局部线性蔓延-组团化协同发展的变化过程,城镇间联系日趋紧密,簇群结构日渐完善。(3)社会经济、产业结构、自然条件构成了滩区周边城镇扩张的内驱力,政策战略与水利工程形成了城镇发展的外驱力,二者耦合协同推动滩区周边城镇扩展格局与空间形态的不断变化。社会经济与产业结构是城镇扩张的主导驱动力,区域发展政策带动作用愈加显著。基于城镇空间扩展特征与驱动机制的研究,提出了滩区周边区域空间发展格局的优化建议。研究成果可为滩区周边城镇空间布局优化与政策制定提供科学支撑,助力高质量高标准建设沿黄城市群的发展目标。With the implementation of ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin,the urban space of cities and towns around the river floodplain area has entered into a new period of rapid growth.This research calculated the Urban Expansion Differentiation Index(UEDI),Compactness Index(C),and Correlation Dimension(Dc)of urban land around the Yellow River floodplain area.Based on the index calculation,this paper analyzed the urban land expansion pattern and morphological characteristics of urban space in the research area from 2000 to 2020.After that,coupled with Random Forests Regression and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model(GTWR),the urban land expansion was regarded as a spatiotemporal system for the driving mechanism analysis in multiple dimensions.The results showed that:(1)Urban land in the research area is expanding in a circle pattern,with significant characteristics of spatiotemporal differentiation and spatial overflow.From 2005 to 2010,cities and towns in this area ushered in a period of high-speed development.Since then,the gravity centers of urban land tended to move towards the Yellow River or adjacent big cities.Urban spaces have developed along the river and the town agglomerations tended to be integrated.(2)The urban land spatial forms in this area evolved in fluctuation.The urban space has gone through the process of multi-point centralized development,local linear spread,and cluster coordinated development.In this process,the connections between cities and towns are becoming closer and closer,and the cluster structure is constantly improving.(3)Economic-social,industrial structure,and natural factors constitute the internal driving force,while the external driving force is composed of flood control projects,policies,and regulations.The coupling of internal and external driving forces promotes the evolution of urban land expansion around the Yellow River floodplain area.On the whole,urban spatial expansion is more dependent on economic development an

关 键 词：城镇用地扩展 时空演化 驱动机制 时空地理加权回归 黄河滩区 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]