中国沿海地区热带气旋变化特征分析  

Analysis of Characteristics of Typhoon Disasters in Coastal Areas of China

作　　者：王振康 雍斌 WANG Zhen-kang;YONG Bin(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第4期22-26,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979073)。

摘　　要：为探讨中国沿海地区登陆台风的影响,基于1949~2020年间的台风数据和社会经济数据,采用M-K趋势分析、R/S分析、风雨分析和灾情量化等研究方法,全面分析登陆中国台风的时空变化、风雨特征及灾情状况。结果表明,中国台风登陆数量呈减少态势,维持时间呈延长趋势,强度方面呈弱减少、强增多的变化,登陆地点存在向东和向北偏移的状态;登陆台风的风速和降水均呈上升趋势,从最大值角度考虑,风速和降水均呈显著的增加趋势;台风影响已逐渐演变成从第二产业转移到第一、第三产业的灾害格局。研究结果将为减少台风灾害的经济损失提供数据支撑和科学依据。In order to explore the impact of landfall typhoons in China's coastal areas,based on the typhoon data and socioeconomic data from 1949 to 2020,M-K trend analysis,R/S analysis,wind and rain analysis,and disaster quantification and other research methods were used to comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial changes,wind and rain characteristics and disaster situation of landfall typhoons in China.The research results show that the number of typhoons landing in China is decreasing,and the duration is prolonged.In terms of intensity,there is a situation of"weak decrease and strong increase",and the landfall sites are shifted to the east and north.Both the wind speed and precipitation of the landfall typhoon showed an upward trend.Considering the maximum value,it was found that the wind speed and precipitation showed a significant increase trend.The impact of typhoon has gradually evolved into a disaster pattern that has shifted from the secondary industry to the primary and tertiary industries.The research results can provide data support and scientific basis for reducing the economic losses of typhoon disasters.

关 键 词：台风 时空变化 风雨分析 M-K分析 R/S分析 经济损失 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]