经济增长的规模经济效应:从增长奇迹到新发展格局  

Effects of Economies of Scale in Growth:From Growth Miracle to the New Development Pattern

作　　者：李宏瑾[1] LI Hong-jin(Research Bureau,the People􀆳s Bank of China,Beijing 100800,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局,北京100800

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2023年第5期14-26,共13页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“罕见灾难冲击、宏观经济下行与宏观经济政策调控研究”(20&ZD055);国家自然科学基金重点课题项目“中国金融体系的演化规律和变革管理”(71733004);国家自然科学基金重点课题项目“结构性货币政策的理论与评估”(72133006)。

摘　　要：本文根据产出核算理论和具有外部性的内生增长模型,对改革开放以来中国经济增长奇迹进行了理论和经验分析。研究发现,1978年以来,中国进入具有规模经济效应的内生增长路径,在这一阶段,增加要素投入可以获得更高的产出,即使控制了人力资本和制度等变量,结果仍然是稳健的。宏观经济结构与产出函数的性质密切相关,中国的规模经济效应主要得益于制度改善,以及市场广度和深度的提高。今后,中国要坚持深化供给侧结构性改革这条主线,构建开放合作的新发展格局,充分发挥超大市场优势的规模经济效应,以便更好地实现经济高质量发展。Currently,China􀆳s economy is shifting towards a high⁃quality development stage,and the external environment has undergone profound changes.Amid global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to understand the transformation of China􀆳s economy from the growth miracle to the new development pattern from the perspective of growth theory.However,since the reform and opening up,China􀆳s factor input and output changes have not been completely synchronized,and the constant returns to scale hypothesis of the neoclassical growth theory is not fully applicable to China􀆳s economy since 1978.Based on the output accounting theory and the endogenous growth model with externality respectively,this paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of China􀆳s growth miracle since 1978.According to the output accounting theory,if the economy of scale holds,the factors’gross output(GDP)should be greater than gross income(GDI)theoretically.The World Bank data show that the ratio of China􀆳s constant price GDP to GDI is greater than 1 for most of the periods after the reform and opening up,indicating the existence of effects of economies of scale.The endogenous growth model considering externality well depicts the effects of economies of scale in economic growth.The empirical analysis based on the national time series and provincial cross⁃sectional data shows that China􀆳s total output function has obvious returns to scale feature since the reform and opening up,and China has achieved rapid growth with an endogenous growth path.The results are robust even if the human capital,system and other variables are controlled.This paper contributes to the existing literature from two aspects.First,different with the most existing studies,this paper conducts theoretical and empirical analyses on China􀆳s economies of scale effect since reform and opening up based on the output accounting theory and the endogenous growth theory respectively,so as to better u

关 键 词：经济增长 增长核算 规模经济 新发展格局 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]