我国工业CO_(2)排放与经济发展脱钩关系解析  

Analysis of the Decoupling Relationship between Industrial CO_(2) Emissions and Economic Development in China

作　　者：宋晓聪 沈鹏[1] 谢明辉[1] 赵慈[1] 陈忱[1] 刘晓宇[1] SONG Xiaocong;SHEN Peng;XIE Minghui;ZHAO Ci;CHEN Chen;LIU Xiaoyu(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry,Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室,北京100012

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第5期28-33,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室开放基金“废旧锂离子电池循环利用碳排放核算研究”(2022KFF-06);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“减污降碳绩效评估理论与方法”(2022YSKY-09);中央财政科技计划结余经费专项项目“钢铁行业全生命周期碳排放核算及减排潜力评估研究”(2021-JY-07);国家重点研发计划“区域土壤环境容量及承载力评价与示范验证”(2021YFC1809104)。

摘　　要：采用脱钩模型和分解模型对1998—2020年中国工业CO_(2)排放与经济发展的脱钩关系进行解析。研究发现:1998—2020年我国工业CO_(2)排放与经济发展间呈现负脱钩状态,但是负脱钩程度在减弱,工业CO_(2)排放与经济发展的关系在向协调发展的方向改善。脱钩稳定性方面,工业CO_(2)排放与经济发展的脱钩状态波动较大,但是稳定性程度在逐步提升。从脱钩因素方面分析,1998—2020年,电力脱钩弹性(EL)、工业电气化脱钩弹性(LS)、价值创造脱钩弹性(SG)均对总脱钩弹性(CG)产生了积极影响,但是能耗脱钩弹性(CE)还未对总脱钩弹性(CG)产生正向贡献。This paper uses the decoupling model and decomposition model to analyze the decoupling relationship between China’s industrial CO_(2) emissions and economic development from 1998 to 2020.The study found that from 1998 to 2020,our country’s industrial CO_(2) emissions and economic development showed a state of negative decoupling,but the degree of negative decoupling was weakening,and the relationship between industrial CO_(2) emissions and economic development was improving in the direction of coordinated development.In terms of decoupling stability,the decoupling state of industrial CO_(2) emissions and economic development fluctuates greatly,but the degree of stability is gradually improving.From the analysis of decoupling factors,during 1998-2020,electricity decoupling elasticity(EL),industrial electrification decoupling elasticity(LS),and value creation decoupling elasticity(SG)all had a positive impact on the total decoupling elasticity(CG),but energy consumption Decoupling elasticity(CE)has not yet made a positive contribution to the total decoupling elasticity(CG).

关 键 词：工业 CO_(2)排放 经济发展 脱钩 因素 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]