面向碳中和目标的不同碳达峰时间对经济社会的影响研究——以广东省为例  

Research on the Economic and Social Impacts of Different Carbon Peak Times for Carbon Neutrality Goals:Taking Guangdong Province as an Example

作　　者：任松彦[1,2,3,4] 汪鹏 林泽伟[1,2,3,4] 张聪 赵黛青 REN Songyan;WANG Peng;LIN Zewei;ZHANG Cong;ZHAO Daiqing(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,Guangzhou Guangdong 510640,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广东广州510640 [3]广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广东广州510640 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第5期34-42,117,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：能源基金会中长期低碳发展战略资金项目“广东省碳达峰综合行动方案研究”(G-2107-33125)。

摘　　要：中国提出了2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的“双碳”目标,对全社会经济发展、能源消费、环境保护都是一场深刻的变革。论文通过构建广东省ICEEH(integrated assessment model of climate,economic,and environment and health)模型,设置不同的达峰时间情景,综合考虑广东省“双碳”目标对宏观经济的影响。结果表明,2025年提前达峰情景和2030年如期达峰情景相比2035年推迟达峰情景,碳排放峰值分别低2000万~4000万吨。对于部门来说,农业和工业部门的碳达峰时间基本与广东全省的碳达峰时间保持一致,而建筑和交通领域的碳达峰分别在2040年和2025年前后出现。从社会影响来看,提前达峰可以促进第三产业的就业人数增加。推迟达峰情景到2045年后减排难度更大,减排成本更高,提前达峰情景和如期达峰情景到2060年GDP总量比推迟达峰情景高1220亿~4386亿元。China has put forward the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,which is a profound change for the whole social and economic development,energy consumption and environmental protection.This paper constructs the Guangdong Province ICEEH(integrated assessment model of climate,economic,and environment and health)model,sets three peak time scenarios,and comprehensively considers the impact of Guangdong Province’s dual carbon goals on the macro economy.The research results show that,compared with the delayed peaking scenario in 2035,the peak carbon emission peak is 20 to 40 million tons lower in the 2025 peaking scenario and the 2030 peaking scenario as scheduled.For departments,the carbon peaking time of agriculture and industry is basically the same as the carbon peaking time of the whole province,while the carbon peaking time of construction and transportation will appear around 2040 and 2025.From the perspective of social impact,an earlier peak can increase employment in the tertiary industry.The scenario of delaying the peak has greater difficulty in reducing emissions and higher costs behind 2045.The total GDP of the scenario of reaching the peak ahead of schedule and the scenario of reaching the peak on schedule will 122 billion to 438.6 billion yuan higher than that of the scenario of delaying the peak by 2060.

关 键 词：CGE 广东省 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]