中日韩区域经济合作的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型的数值模拟  

An Analysis of the Influence and Effect of Regional Economic Cooperation between China,Japan and South Korea:Numerical Simulation based on GTAP Model

作　　者：魏文婉[1] 左雅慧 陈婉 WEI Wenwan;ZUO Yahui;CHEN Wan(Business School,Hubei University,Wuhan 430062,China;Business School,Hubei University of Science and Technology,Xianning 437100,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院,湖北武汉430062 [2]湖北科技学院商学院,湖北咸宁437100

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第3期42-47,共6页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC790152);国家社科基金重点项目(19AJL016)。

摘　　要：中日韩作为东亚地区经济贸易中最活跃的三个经济体,合作潜力巨大。本文运用GTAP模型,分析关税调整和贸易便利化水平提升对中日韩各国经济的影响。研究发现:在单一削减关税的情形下,中国GDP与社会福利效用受到负面影响,中国和韩国多数产业产出呈现增长态势,而日本多个部门产出受到负面冲击;在单一提升贸易便利化水平或两项贸易政策叠加的情形下,区域经济合作推动了三国经济的增长,扩大了区域内贸易规模,改善了三国贸易条件。因此,在区域经济合作中,应分阶段推进中日韩自贸区谈判进程,加快中国自身产业结构的优化与升级,努力争取日韩对中国农产品及其加工品的关税减让。As the three most active economies in economic and trade in East Asia,China,Japan and South Korea have great potential for economic cooperation.This paper uses the standard GTAP model to analyze the economic impact of tariff adjustment and trade facilitation on China,Japan and South Korea.The study found that in the case of single tariff reduction,China's GDP and social welfare utility were negatively affected,most of the industrial output of China and South Korea showed growth,while the output of many sectors in Japan was negatively impacted;In the case of single promotion of trade facilitation or the superposition of two trade policies,regional economic cooperation has promoted the economic growth of the three countries,expanded the scale of intra-regional trade,and improved the terms of trade of the three countries.Therefore,in regional economic cooperation,we should promote the negotiation process of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone in stages,accelerate the optimization and upgrading of China's own industrial structure,and strive for tariff concessions of Japan and South Korea on Chinese agricultural products and processed agricultural products.

关 键 词：中日韩自贸区 关税 贸易便利化 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]