中国大麦进口格局及进口多元化分析  

Research on China’s Barley Import Pattern andImport Diversification

作　　者：贾小玲 孙致陆[2] 李先德[2] JIA Xiaoling;SUN Zhilu;LI Xiande

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《世界农业》2023年第5期57-67,共11页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家大麦青稞产业技术体系建设专项经费项目“大麦青稞产业经济研究”(CARS-05-06A-01);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目“国际农业经济与贸易”(ASTIP-IAED-2022-06、ASTIP-IAED-2022-ZD-02)。

摘　　要：2001年以来,中国大麦进口格局呈现进口规模持续快速增长、对外依存度持续走高、进口来源市场比较集中、大麦作为玉米替代品占饲料粮进口比重较高等特征。国内大麦产能逐渐萎缩、大麦需求急剧增加和进口大麦较国内大麦与玉米均具有价格比较优势是当前中国大麦进口格局形成的主要原因。鉴于未来中国大麦大量进口的局面将长期存在,本文采用构建的进口依赖性风险指标测算中国大麦进口依赖性风险,探究未来多元化进口渠道的可能性,认为未来拓展大麦进口来源可供选择的国家包括俄罗斯、德国、哈萨克斯坦等。据此,本文提出稳定国内大麦高质量产能、优化大麦进口区域结构,积极布局全球产业链,加强信息监测预警与信息发布等对策建议。Since 2001,China’s barley import pattern presents the import scale continues to grow rapidly,the external dependence continues to be high,the import source market is relatively concentrated,barley as a substitute for corn accounted for a higher proportion of feed grain imports.Domestic barley production capacity gradually shrink,barley demand has increased sharply and imported barley than domestic barley and corn have comparative price advantages is the main reason for the formation of the current pattern of barley imports in China.In the future,China will import a large amount of barley for a long time,using the constructed import dependence risk index to measure the risk of China’s barley import dependence,explore the possibility of diversified import channels in the future,and believe that the future expansion of barley import sources can be chosen from Russia,Germany,Kazakhstan and other countries.Accordingly,put forward proposals to stabilize the domestic barley high-quality production capacity,optimize the regional structure of barley imports,actively layout the global industry chain,strengthen information monitoring and early warning and information dissemination and other countermeasures.

关 键 词：大麦 进口格局 进口依赖性风险 进口多元化 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61