2008—2021年我国煤矿事故规律分析及预测研究  

Law analysis and prediction research of coal mine accidents in China from 2008 to 2021

作　　者：张培森[1,2] 张晓乐 董宇航 许大强 ZHANG Peisen;ZHANG Xiaole;DONG Yuhang;XU Daqiang(National Key Laboratory Cultivation Base for Mine Disaster Prevention and Control,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;National Experimental Teaching Demonstration Center of Mining Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学矿山灾害预防控制省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地,山东青岛266590 [2]山东科技大学矿业工程国家级实验教学示范中心,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《矿业安全与环保》2023年第2期136-140,146,共6页Mining Safety & Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0604702);国家自然科学基金项目(51379119);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021ME086)。

摘　　要：为了更加深入地分析我国煤矿安全事故发生的特点及规律,基于2008—2021年全国煤矿事故数量及死亡人数的统计数据,分别从事故发生地区、事故等级、事故类型及发生时间4个维度对我国煤矿安全事故进行分析,并对2022—2023年百万吨死亡率进行预测。结果表明:我国煤矿安全事故呈现出北方多南方少、西南地区偏多的规律;不同等级事故中,一般事故发生起数最多,死亡人数最少;重特大事故发生起数少,但是死亡人数最多;从事故类型来看,顶板事故、瓦斯事故及运输事故是我国煤矿安全事故发生的主要事故类型;从事故发生时间来看,1—3月事故起数相对较少,7—10月事故起数较多。In order to further analyze the characteristics and rules of coal mine safety accidents in China,based on the statistics data of the number of coal mine accidents and fatalities from 2008 to 2021,the coal mine safety accidents in China were analyzed from four dimensions,including accident region,accident grade,accident type and accident time.The mortality rate per million tons for 2022 and 2023 was projected.The results show that coal mine safety accidents are more in the north and less in the south,and more in the southwest.Among the accidents of different grades,the number of common accidents is the most and the death toll is the least.The number of major accidents is small,but the death toll is the largest.In terms of accident types,roof accident,gas accident and transportation accident are the main types of coal mine safety accidents in China.From the point of view of the accident time,the number of accidents from January to March is relatively less,and the number of accidents from July to October is more.

关 键 词：煤矿安全 煤矿事故 统计分析 发生规律 百万吨死亡率 

分 类 号：TD79[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全] X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]