基于速度风险势场的高速公路行车风险甄别方法  

Expressway driving risk identification method based on velocity risk potential field

作　　者：王博 张驰[1,2] 任士鹏[4] 刘昌赫[1] 谢子龙 WANG Bo;ZHANG Chi;REN Shi-peng;LIU Chang-he;XIE Zi-long(School of Highway,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China;Engineering Research Center of Highway Infrastructure Digitalization,Ministry of Education,Xi’an 710000,China;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore 639798,Singapore;Guangdong Communication Planning and Design Institute Group Co.Ltd,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]教育部公路基础设施数字化工程研究中心,陕西西安710000 [3]南洋理工大学土木与环境学院,新加坡639798 [4]广东省交通规划设计研究院集团股份有限公司,广东广州510630

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（工学版）》2023年第5期997-1008,共12页Journal of Zhejiang University：Engineering Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2020YFC1512005);四川省科技计划资助项目(2022YFG0048);四川省交通运输厅科技项目(2019-ZL-12,2022-ZL-04);山西省重点研发计划资助项目(202102020101014).

摘　　要：为了在宏观尺度下实现行车风险的空间定位、分类和量化,收集了路段和断面的车辆速度数据.在分析速度空间分布特征的基础上,综合考虑速度变化和道路线形对行车风险的影响.引入安全势场理论,建立速度风险势场模型,提出高速公路行车风险宏观甄别方法,最后进行实例分析与有效性验证.结果表明:在验证路段中甄别出的侧向、纵向和空间高风险路段占比分别为7.74%、12.88%、24.33%,区域内发生的事故占总事故的比例分别为31.21%、31.55%、43.26%.速度风险势场强度和交通事故分布具有较强的规律性,能够在一定程度上表征路段行车风险构成和严重程度.高速公路交通流速度波动在一定程度上反映道路安全状态,考虑到道路线形指标对行车风险的影响,车辆速度的变化可用于准确甄别行车风险.The vehicle speed data on road segments and cross-sections were collected to achieve the spatial localization,classification,and quantification of driving risk at the macro scale.The influence of speed change and road alignment on driving risk was comprehensively considered based on the analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of the vehicle speed.The safety potential field theory was introduced,the velocity risk potential field model was established,and a macro-identification method for expressway driving risk was proposed.Then the case analysis and validity check were conducted.The results showed that the proportions of lateral,longitudinal and spatial high-risk sections identified in the verification sections were 7.74%,12.88%,and 24.33%respectively.The accidents in these areas accounted for 31.21%,31.55%and 43.26%of the total accidents respectively.The intensity of the speed risk potential field and the distribution of traffic accidents have strong regularity,which can represent the composition and severity of the traffic risk in the road section to a certain extent.The velocity variation of expressway traffic flow reflects the road safety states to a certain extent.Taking into account the impact of road alignment index on driving risk,the change in vehicle velocity can be used to identify driving risk precisely.

关 键 词：高速公路 行车风险 风险甄别 速度分布 风险势场 

分 类 号：U412[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]