不同时期美国量化宽松政策对中国通货膨胀影响研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的对比分析  

The Impact of Quantitative Easing in the U.S.on Inflation in China Across Different Periods-- A Comparative Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

作　　者：张华初[1] 王徐铖 Zhang Huachu;Wang Xucheng

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2023年第2期35-50,共16页Financial Economics Research

摘　　要：采用TVP-VAR模型探究不同时期美国量化宽松背景下,货币发行量增加对中国通货膨胀所产生的影响差异,研究显示,2020年3月开始实施的美国量化宽松与之前三次量化宽松政策相比,其货币发行量对中国货币政策的正向冲击明显减小;国际大宗商品和人民币发行量增加对中国通货膨胀的正向冲击增大。这表明中国货币政策的独立性有所上升,整体上对通货膨胀造成正向冲击,稳健的货币政策抑制了国内通货膨胀,国际大宗商品价格依然是影响中国国内物价的重要因素。因此,中国政府应保持货币政策的稳健与独立性,进一步深化供给侧结构性改革,推动国内经济的良好发展,以应对美国货币政策带来的波动。This study explores differences in the impact of increased money issuance on inflation in China against the backdrop of Quantitative Easing in the U.S.across different periods using the TVP-VAR model.The results showed that the amount of money issued during the rollout of Quantitative Easing by the U.S.in March 2020 had a markedly reduced positive impact on China's monetary policy compared to the previous three periods of Quantitative Easing in the country while rising international commodity prices and increased issuance of the Renminbi had a greater positive impact on inflation in China.These findings suggest that China's monetary policy has become more independent,and a stable monetary policy has curbed domestic inflation.However,international commodity prices remained a vital factor influencing domestic commodity prices in China.Therefore,the relevant departments should maintain the stability and independence of monetary policy,step up efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform,and promote the healthy development of the domestic economy to cope with the impact of fluctuations in international commodity prices on domestic commodity prices in China.

关 键 词：美国量化宽松 货币政策 TVP-VAR模型 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]