区域自由贸易协定的异质性贸易效应研究——来自协定条款质量的解释  

Research on Heterogeneous Trade Effects of Regional Free Trade Agreements--Interpretation from the Text Quality of the Provisions

作　　者：铁瑛[1] 张雪 Tie Ying;Zhang Xue(Institute of International Business,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics;School of International Business,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸研究所 [2]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《宏观质量研究》2023年第2期60-76,共17页Journal of Macro-quality Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“构建面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络研究”(22ZDA062)的阶段性成果;上海市“曙光计划”(20SG53)的资助。

摘　　要：本文探讨了区域自由贸易协定(FTA)广泛存在的异质性贸易效应。本文基于1990-2015年的深层协定数据库及UN Comtrade全球贸易数据,应用两阶段回归策略,在第一阶段估计出特定协定的贸易影响系数,识别并测度出单一协定的贸易效应,在第二阶段基于条款质量,即深度条款的差异性解释了第一阶段FTA影响系数的差异来源。实证结果表明:(1)样本中约有三分之一的FTA对贸易表现出显著的积极影响,三分之一的FTA表现出显著的负向作用,余下部分的FTA对贸易的影响并不显著,表现出鲜明的异质性,与既有文献一致;(2)基于FTA动态深化视角,深度条款覆盖广度的扩张是FTA贸易促进效应提升的重要解释力;(3)基于FTA条款覆盖的内容类型,覆盖货物贸易深度自由化、投资、服务贸易、要素流动及科研合作的FTA均显著提升了FTA的贸易影响;(4)最后基于具体的WTO+条款及WTO-X条款的细化研究表明,WTO+领域的条款覆盖显著提升了贸易创造效应,而WTO-X条款基于覆盖领域的差异表现出差异化的贸易影响。最后通过对比分析发现,以WTO-X领域相关条款带动WTO+领域的条款文本质量提升和深度贸易自由化是实现FTA效力激活的重要途径。本文不仅从条款异质性层面为研究FTA缔结的异质性影响提供了更直接的经验证据,而且对于我国下一步FTA发展战略和条款选择提供了有价值的参考依据。Based on the deep agreement database and UN Comtrade global trade data from 1990 to 2015,this paper discusses the heterogeneous trade effects widely existing in regional free trade agreements(FTA).The empirical part applies the two-stage regression strategy to estimate the trade impact coefficient of a specific agreement in the first stage,identify and measure the trade effect of a single agreement.In the second stage,based on the quality of the provisions,that is,the differences in the depth of the provisions,the sources of the differences in the FTA impact coefficient in the first stage are explained.The empirical results show that:(1)About one third of the FTA in the sample has a significant positive impact on trade,one third of the FTA has a significant negative impact on trade,and the rest of the FTA has no significant impact on trade,showing a distinct heterogeneity,consistent with the existing literature;(2)Based on the perspective of dynamic deepening of FTA,the expansion of the coverage of depth clauses is an important explanation for the improvement of FTA’s trade promotion effect;(3)Based on the content types covered by the FTA clauses,the FTA covering the deep liberalization of trade in goods,investment,trade in services,factor flow and scientific research cooperation has significantly improved the trade impact of the FTA;(4)Finally,based on the specific WTO+provisions and WTO-X provisions,the coverage of the WTO+provisions has significantly improved the trade creation effect,while the differences in the coverage areas of the WTO-X provisions show the differential trade impact.Finally,through comparative analysis,the conclusion of the study shows that the improvement of the quality of the WTO+provisions and the deep trade liberalization driven by the relevant provisions in the WTO-X field is an important way to activate the effectiveness of the FTA.This paper not only provides more direct empirical evidence for the study of the impact of the heterogeneity of FTA conclusion from the perspective of th

关 键 词：区域自由贸易协定 文本质量 国际贸易 异质性 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]