养老保险基金中央调剂制度与地方征缴失衡:基于央-地互动视角的分析  

Centralizing of Public Pension Fund and Fund Collection Imbalance of Local Governments--An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Central-Local Interaction

作　　者：路锦非[1] 张路 郭子杨 Lu Jinfeil;Zhang Lu;Guo Ziyang(Faculty of Economics and Management,East China Normal University,Shanghai,200062,China;School of Politics and International Relations,East China Normal University,Shanghai,200062,China;School of Information Science and Technology,Shanghai Tech University,Shanghai,200031,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学公共管理学院,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院,上海200062 [3]上海科技大学信息科学与技术学院,上海200031

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2023年第2期103-115,172,共14页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174064);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(19YJA630050)。

摘　　要：基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度实施以来,全国各省份基金均出现了较大幅度的减收现象,原地区间征缴失衡问题有加剧趋势。本文构建理论模型对全国统筹中央调剂制度“中央-地方”之间互动关系的理论分析发现:(1)地方政府存在不断降低征缴努力成本的内在动机,将负向影响基金征缴效率;(2)基于上一期不同调剂结果的地方在下一期的努力程度将呈现分异,调剂净获益省份努力程度较净贡献省份更低。进一步构建宏观和微观两个层次的计量实证模型,验证中央调剂制度的当前政策负向影响地方政府征缴积极性,基金征缴下降,且调剂净获益地区的征缴力度下降更多。实证结果验证了理论分析结论。全国统筹中央调剂制度对地方政府征缴行为形成负外部性影响,弱化了地方征缴积极性,加剧了地区间征缴失衡,可能影响制度的长期可持续性。本文为基金征缴不断下降的现象提供了理论解释和实证检验,对基于央地间的策略互动完善全国统筹有启示意义。Since the implementation of the central adjustment policy of basic pension insurance funds,all provinces'funds across the country have experienced a relatively large reduction,and the imbalance of fund collection among regions has tended to deteriorate.This paper constructs a theoretical model and an empirical model to analysis the relationship between the central adjustment policy and local government fund collection.The theoretical model shows that,local government may have an intrinsic incentive to reduce the efforts in pension collection process.Provinces with different type of adjustment may have different level of efforts,and the net beneficiary provinces even make lower efforts than net contributor provinces.Empirical analysis is conducted from both macro and micro perspectives,verifying that the Central Adjustment Policy has negatively affected incentives of local government and then induced the decrease of the amount of pension fund collected,the net beneficiary also provinces a greater decline.This study provides theoretical and empirical explanations for the phenomenon of severe decrease of pension fund collection,which has implications for perfection nationwide centralization based on the interaction of central and local strategies.

关 键 词：基本养老保险基金 中央调剂制度 地方养老基金征缴 征缴失衡 策略互动 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理]