喀斯特山区土地利用综合效益动态演化及预测--以贵州省为例  

Study on Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Prediction of Comprehensive Benefits of Land Use in Karst Area-A Case Study in Guizhou Province

作　　者：魏媛[1] 杨园园 Wei Yuan;Yang Yuanyuan(School of Management Science and Engineering,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学管理科学与工程学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《绿色科技》2023年第2期1-7,共7页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：贵州省2022年度哲学社会科学规划课题(编号:22GZYB57);贵州生态产品总值核算及其绩效考核研究;2022年贵州财经大学科研基金项目(编号:2022KYYB11);贵州少数民族地区乡村振兴的实践路径研究。

摘　　要：为促进喀斯特山区的土地资源低碳高效生态可持续利用,利用组合赋权法、灰色预测模型等方法对贵州土地利用综合效益的动态演化及其趋势进行了测度分析及预测。结果表明:2005~2017年贵州土地利用经济效益、社会效益、生态效益、综合效益均表现出增长的动态变化趋势,13年期间分别上升了3006.11%、360.31%、243.61%、547.19%,表明随着研究区工业化、城镇化和生态文明建设的快速推进,土地利用各效益在不断提高;2005~2017年9个州市土地利用综合效益整体表现上升的趋势,综合效益增长率大小排序为贵阳市>铜仁市>六盘水市>黔东南州>黔西南州>安顺市>黔南州>毕节市>遵义市;2018~2030年期间,贵州省及9个州市土地利用综合效益均呈现稳定上升的态势,且城市之间的差异也越来越大。为此,提出了研究区在未来土地开发利用中需培育低碳高效生态化的土地利用模式以进一步提高其综合效益,同时进一步注重各州市间土地利用综合效益的协调发展,以实现土地资源低碳高效生态可持续利用,促进研究区高质量发展。In order to promote the low-carbon,efficient and ecologically sustainable use of land resources in karst mountainous areas,the dynamic evolution and trend of the comprehensive benefits of land use in Guizhou were measured,analyzed and predicted by means of combination weighting method and grey prediction model.The results showed that the economic benefits,social benefits,ecological benefits,and comprehensive benefits of land use in Guizhou had shown dynamic growth trends from 2005 to 2017,and had increased by 3006.11%,360.31%,243.61%,and 547.19%during the 13-year period.From^(2)005 to 2017,the overall performance of the comprehensive benefits of land use in the nine prefectures and cities showed an upward trend.The growth rate of comprehensive benefits ranked from large to small as Guiyang City>Tongren City>Liupanshui City>Qiandongnan Prefecture>Qianxinan Prefecture>Anshun City>Qiannan Prefecture>Bijie City>Zunyi City.The comprehensive benefits of land use from 2018 to 2030 in Guizhou Province and 9 prefectures and cities had been rising steadily,and the differences between cities were becoming larger and larger,suggesting that low-carbon,efficient and ecological land use patterns should be cultivated in future land development and utilization in the study area to further improve its comprehensive benefits.At the same time,more attention should be paid to the coordinated development of the comprehensive benefits of land use in each city and city,so as to realize the low-carbon,efficient,ecological and sustainable utilization of land resources and promote the high-quality development of the study area.In the future land development and utilization,it was necessary to cultivate the low-carbon and high-efficient ecological land use patterns to improve its comprehensive benefits,and to pay attention to the coordinated development of the comprehensive benefits of land use among the states and cities.

关 键 词：土地利用综合效益 动态演化 灰色预测 喀斯特山区 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]