产品创新设计中的黑天鹅事件预测与规避方法  

Forecast and avoidance for black swans in the product innovation design

作　　者：檀润华[1,2] 许波 TAN Run-hua;XU Bo(School of Mechanical Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401;National Engineering Research Center for Technological Innovation Method and Tool,Tianjin 300401)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学机械工程学院,天津300401 [2]国家技术创新方法与实施工具工程技术研究中心,天津300401

出　　处：《机械设计》2023年第3期1-6,共6页Journal of Machine Design

基　　金：科技部创新方法工作专项(2019IM050200)。

摘　　要：黑天鹅事件是一种重大且稀有的事件,企业将自己的产品投放市场运行的过程中,如出现黑天鹅事件,将对企业的发展带来致命的影响。为解决黑天鹅事件难以预测和规避的问题,根据待开发产品本身与所处环境的复杂性,确定了黑天鹅事件出现的条件;改进了已有的新产品开发过程模型,使之能包含黑天鹅事件的预测阶段;提出预测该类事件的6步法,并构建了规避方法模板,为新产品开发中是否出现黑天鹅事件提供新的预测与规避方法。The event of black swans is a kind of surprising extreme events.If a black swan event is presented during the process of putting the products into the markets in a firm,the event will have a negative and significant impact for the development of that firm.To solve the problems of unpredictable and avoidance of black swan events in current research,the conditions to appear the black swans is determined in this article according to the complex situations for both the product and the environment.The model for furcating the black swans is set up.The step-by-step method for avoidance of the black swans is developed.A new path for forecast and avoidance of the black swans in the new product development is introduced.

关 键 词：产品创新设计 黑天鹅事件 预测方法 规避方法 预期失效模板 

分 类 号：TB472[一般工业技术—工业设计]