基于FTA-BN的综合交通枢纽中地铁车站安全风险评价  

Safety Risk Assessment of a Subway Station in an Integrated Transportation Hub Based on FTA-BN

作　　者：姚诗忆 汪益敏[1,2] 仇培云 陈嘉诚 农轲 YAO Shiyi;WANG Yimin;Qiu Peiyun;CHEN Jiacheng;NONG Ke(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640;State Key Lab of Subtropical Building Science,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640;Guangzhou Metro Group Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510335)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510640 [2]华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广州510640 [3]广州地铁集团有限公司,广州510335

出　　处：《都市快轨交通》2023年第2期174-182,共9页Urban Rapid Rail Transit

基　　金：广东省科技计划资助项目(2017A050501005);亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2020ZB25)。

摘　　要：以综合交通枢纽中的地铁车站安全为研究目标,综合考虑综合交通枢纽中特殊的客流组成和乘客特征,以踩踏、火灾、水灾、公共卫生和大面积滞留5类易发风险事故作为研究对象,基于FTA-BN方法对其影响因素进行分析,识别其风险因素,建立相应的事故树模型,转化为贝叶斯网络模型进行风险评价;引入三角模糊数处理专家自然语言,得到贝叶斯网络中的先验概率和条件概率分布,然后通过贝叶斯网络模型进行网络推理计算和敏感性分析,找出地铁车站中的薄弱部分,制定相应的风险管控措施,从而提高枢纽中地铁车站对于紧急事件的应对能力。以广州南站地铁车站为例进行快速评价,结果表明:广州南站在公共卫生安全方面存在一定危险,发生概率为42.98%,且较易发生大面积滞留事件,可能性为30.40%。This study considers subway station safety in an integrated transportation hub as the research objective and comprehensively examines the special passenger flow composition and passenger characteristics.Five accident risk-prone types were considered,namely,stampedes,fires,floods,public health,and large-area detention.The study analyzed its influencing factors based on the FTA-BN method,identified the risk factors,and established a corresponding fault tree model,which was later transformed into a Bayesian network model for risk assessment.Prior probability and conditional probability distributions in Bayesian networks were obtained by introducing an expert natural language for triangular fuzzy number processing.Subsequently,the Bayesian network model was used to perform network reasoning calculations and sensitivity analysis.The results helped identify the weak parts of the subway station and formulate corresponding risk control measures to improve the emergency response of the subway station in the hub.The subway station of Guangzhou South Metro Station was considered as an example for rapid evaluation,and the evaluation results showed that the station was prone to a certain amount of risk in terms of public health safety with a probability of 42.98%,and was prone to large-area detention with a probability of 30.40%.

关 键 词：综合交通枢纽 地铁车站 事故树 模糊贝叶斯网络 安全风险评价 

分 类 号：U291.69[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]