中国粮食安全:风险评估、供需结构和未来研判  

Food security in China:Risk assessment,supply and demand structure,and future research and judgment

作　　者：陈兆清[1] 程明 CHEN Zhaoqing;CHENG Ming(Party School of Lu’an Municipal Committee of the CPC,Lu’an 237000,China)

机构地区：[1]中共六安市委党校,安徽六安237000

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2023年第4期102-114,共13页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“安徽省大别山区脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴战略有机衔接机制研究”(AHSKQ2020D81)。

摘　　要：基于我国当前粮食供需结构与粮食贸易现状,从理论与实证角度分别分析我国粮食供给目前面临的风险与困境,以及对我国粮食安全可能产生的影响。研究发现,目前我国粮食供给主要面临五大风险:心理恐慌风险、市场投机风险、国际粮食减产风险、粮食出口国贸易政策调整风险和自然灾害风险。我国粮食供需结构与粮食进口面临的困境主要包括:(1)我国玉米、小麦供需结构处于紧平衡状态,大豆供需结构失衡,保障粮食生产与供给稳定的压力增加;(2)近几年我国粮食进口依赖度较高,贸易进口量较大;(3)我国4种主要粮食进口来源地相对集中,部分出口国基于国内粮食安全的考虑可能收缩粮食出口、减少贸易活动,未来我国粮食进口面临挑战。基于实证分析发现,市场投机、国际粮食减产、粮食出口国贸易政策调整与自然灾害将会显著影响我国粮食价格稳定。进一步分析发现:一方面,只要及时采取科学政策和措施,保障农业生产,稳定国际粮食贸易,打击市场投机行为,必要时调整需求结构,则国内的粮食安全是能够得到长期保障的;另一方面,需要高度重视当前我国粮食进口渠道存在的隐患。Food is the top priority for the people,and food security is not only related to the development of agricultural economy,but also to the guarantee of national social stability and strategic security.Based on the current situation of China’s main grain supply and demand structure and import trade in recent years,combined with the five major risks,this study examines the difficulties that China’s grain supply and demand structure and import trade may face.Besides,based on the fixed effect model,an empirical analysis is conducted on the core conclusions of the risk section,and further judgment is made on whether food security issues will occur in China at present.The contribution of this article is mainly reflected in four aspects.Firstly,a detailed explanation of the potential risks of China’s main grains is provided.Secondly,starting from the structure of grain supply and demand and the structure of import trade,a detailed analysis of the possible difficulties is done that China’s grain supply and import may face at present.Thirdly,based on theoretical and empirical analysis,a preliminary judgment on China’s future food security is made.Fourthly,some policy recommendations to ensure domestic food supply and market stability are proposed.Based on China’s current grain supply and demand structure and the status quo of grain trade,this article analyzes the risks and difficulties faced by China’s grain supply and the possible impact on China’s food security from theoretical and empirical perspectives.The study finds that currently China’s food supply faces five major risks:psychological panic risk,market speculation risk,international grain production reduction risk,trade policy adjustment risk of grain exporting countries and natural disaster risk.The difficulties faced by China’s grain supply and demand structure and grain imports mainly include:(1)The supply and demand structure of China’s corn and wheat is in a tightly balanced state;the soybean supply and demand structure is unbalanced;the p

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食供给风险 粮食进口 粮食供需结构 粮食贸易 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]