Mathematical modeling of the dynamics of COVID-19 variants of concern:Asymptotic and finite-time perspectives  

作　　者：Adriana-Stefania Ciupeanu Marie Varughese Weston C.Roda Donglin Han Qun Cheng Michael Y.Li 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics and Department of Statistics,University of Manitoba,Winnipeg,Manitoba,R3T 2N2,Canada [2]Analytics and Performance Reporting Branch,Alberta Health,Edmonton,Alberta,Canada [3]Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences,University of Alberta,Edmonton,Alberta,T6G 2G1,Canada

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第4期581-596,共16页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：funded in part by NSERC Alliance COVID-19 grant(ALLRP 555037-20);NSERC Discovery grant(RGPIN-2020-04134 Li);the CIHR funded Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Task Force,and the NSERC-PHAC EIDM Network“Mathematics for Public Health(MfPH)”.

摘　　要：The COVID-19 pandemic has seen multiple waves,in part due to the implementation and relaxation of social distancing measures by the public health authorities around the world,and also caused by the emergence of new variants of concern(VOCs)of the SARS-Cov-2 virus.As the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to transition into an endemic state,how to manage outbreaks caused by newly emerging VOCs has become one of the primary public health issues.Using mathematical modeling tools,we investigated the dynamics of VOCs,both in a general theoretical framework and based on observations from public health data of past COVID-19 waves,with the objective of understanding key factors that determine the dominance and coexistence of VOCs.Our results show that the transmissibility advantage of a new VOC is a main factor for it to become dominant.Additionally,our modeling study indicates that the initial number of people infected with the new VOC plays an important role in determining the size of the epidemic.Our results also support the evidence that public health measures targeting the newly emerging VOC taken in the early phase of its spread can limit the size of the epidemic caused by the new VOC(Wu et al.,2139Wu,Scarabel,Majeed,Bragazzi,&Orbinski,Wu et al.,2021).

关 键 词：COVID-19 pandemic Variants of concern Mathematical modeling Coexistence and replacement of variants Public health measures 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]