Optimal COVID-19 epidemic strategy with vaccination control and infection prevention measures in Thailand  

作　　者：Adison Thongtha Chairat Modnak 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,Faculty of Science,Naresuan University,Phitsanulok,65000,Thailand

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第4期835-855,共21页传染病建模（英文）

摘　　要：COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by the Coronavirus-2 virus(SARS-CoV-2).The virus spreads from one to another through droplets from an infected person,and sometimes these droplets can contaminate surfaces that may be another infection pathway.In this study,we developed a COVID-19 model based on data and observations in Thailand.The country has strictly distributed masks,vaccination,and social distancing measures to control the disease.Hence,we have classified the susceptible individuals into two classes:one who follows the measures and another who does not take the control guidelines seriously.We conduct epidemic and endemic analyses and represent the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number.We have examined the parameter values used in our model using the mean general interval(GI).From the calculation,the value is 5.5 days which is the optimal value of the COVID-19 model.Besides,we have formulated an optimal control problem to seek guidelines maintaining the spread of COVID-19.Our simulations suggest that high-risk groups with no precaution to prevent the disease(maybe due to lack of budgets or equipment)are crucial to getting vaccinated to reduce the number of infections.The results also indicate that preventive measures are the keys to controlling the disease.

关 键 词：COVID-19 epidemics Mathematical modelling Stability analysis Global stability Optimal control problem Infectious disease 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R186[医药卫生—内科学]