The distribution of COVID-19 mortality  

作　　者：Michele Campolieti Arturo Ramos 

机构地区：[1]Department of Management,University of Toronto Scarborough,Toronto,Canada [2]Departamento de Analisis Economico,Universidad de Zaragoza,Zaragoza,Spain

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2022年第4期856-873,共18页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaciòn(PID 2020-112773 GB-I00);by Gobierno de Aragòn(ADETRE Reference GroupS39_20R).

摘　　要：We estimate the distribution of COVID-19 mortality(measured as daily deaths)from the start of the pandemic until July 31st,2022,for six European countries and the USA.We use the Pareto,the stretched exponential,the log-normal and the log-logistic distributions as well as mixtures of the log-normal and log-logistic distributions.The main results are that the Pareto does not describe well the data and that mixture distributions tend to offer a very good fit to the data.We also compute Value-at-Risk measures as well as mortality probabilities with our estimates.We also discuss the implications of our results and findings from the point of view of public health planning and modelling.

关 键 词：COVID-19 Mortality distribution PARETO Stretched exponential Log-normal and log-logistic distributions Mixture distributions Value-at-Risk measures Tail risks 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181[医药卫生—内科学]