Recursive Zero-COVID model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province  

作　　者：Xinmiao Rong Huidi Chu Liu Yang Shaosi Tan Chao Yang Pei Yuan Yi Tan Linhua Zhou Yawen Liu Qing Zhen Shishen Wang Meng Fan Huaiping Zhu 

机构地区：[1]Harbin Engineering University,Harbin,150001,China [2]Northeast Normal University,Changchun,130024,China [3]York University,Toronto,Canada [4]Jilin University,Changchun,130021,China [5]Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changchun,130033,China [6]Changchun University of Science and Technology,Changchun,130013,China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第1期11-26,共16页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(12101157,12126206);Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province,China(20210101482JC);Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province,China(LH2021A003).

摘　　要：Since the beginning of March 2022,the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province.To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province,we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures,and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions.Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively.The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17,respectively,which are consistent with the real situation.Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic.It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic.In addition,the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.

关 键 词：Omicron variant Recursive Zero-COVID Model Elimination of cases at the community level Basic reproduction number Control reproduction number Quantitation of control efforts 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学] R563.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]