The effect of changing COVID-19 restrictions on the transmission rate in a veterinary clinic  

作　　者：Lee Spence David E.Anderson Ibrahim Halil Aslan Mahir Demir Chika C.Okafor Marcy Souza Suzanne Lenhart 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,University of Tennessee,Knoxville,TN,USA [2]Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences,College of Veterinary Medicine,University of Tennessee,Knoxville,TN,USA [3]Hopkins Marine Station,Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability,USA [4]Department of Mathematics,Giresun University,Giresun,Turkey [5]Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences,College of Veterinary Medicine,University of Tennessee,Knoxville,TN,USA

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第1期294-308,共15页传染病建模（英文）

摘　　要：With the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11,2020,the University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine(UTCVM),like other institutions,restructured their services to reduce the potential spread of the COVID-19 virus while simultaneously providing critical and essential veterinary services.A mathematical model was developed to predict the change in the level of possible COVID-19 infections due to the increased number of potential contacts within the UTCVM hospital.A system of ordinary differential equations with different compartments for UTCVM individuals and the Knox county population was formulated to show the dynamics of transmission and the number of confirmed cases.Key transmission rates in the model were estimated using COVID-19 case data from the surrounding county and UTCVM personnel.Simulations from this model show the increasing number of COVID-19 cases among UTCVM personnel as the number of daily clients and the number of veterinary staff in the clinic are increased.We also investigate how changes within the Knox county community impact the UTCVM hospital.These scenarios show the importance of understanding the effects of re-opening scenarios in veterinary teaching hospitals.

关 键 词：Veterinary teaching hospital COVID-19 Mathematical model Disease transmission 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]