政府科技支出、区域创新与经济增长  

Government Expenditure on Science and Technology,Regional Innovation and Economic Growth

作　　者：闫慧慧 Yan Huihui(School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第8期131-136,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：部省共建科研项目(2020110107);上海财经大学研究生创新项目(CXJJ-2021-336)。

摘　　要：文章基于2003—2019年我国31个省份的面板数据,运用门槛回归模型研究了政府科技支出对区域创新的非线性影响。研究发现:政府科技支出对区域创新的影响存在基于人力资本水平的双门槛效应,只有当人力资本水平超过一定门槛值时,政府科技支出才能显著激励创新产出;政府科技支出对区域创新的促进作用呈“阶梯型”递增,当人力资本水平跨越第二门槛值后,政府科技支出对区域创新产出的促进作用会显著提高。进一步的动态均衡关系分析表明,政府科技支出、区域创新、人力资本与经济增长之间存在动态相互影响机制,政府科技支出和区域创新对经济增长具有正向作用,且随着期数的增加,正向作用趋于稳定;而人力资本对经济增长产生负向的冲击作用;从方差分解的结果来看,经济增长的主要因素来源于经济增长自身的驱动效应,随后是区域创新产出、政府科技支出。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019,this paper uses the threshold regression model to study the nonlinear effect of government expenditure on regional innovation.The research findings go as below:The influence of government science and technology expenditure on regional innovation has a double threshold effect based on human capital level;only when the level of human capital exceeds a certain threshold can fiscal science and technology expenditure significantly stimulate the output of innovation.The role of fiscal science and technology expenditure in promoting regional innovation is increasing in a stepwise manner.When the level of human capital crosses the second threshold,the role of fiscal science and technology expenditure in promoting regional innovation will significantly increase.Further analysis of the dynamic equilibrium relationship shows that there is a dynamic interaction mechanism between fiscal science and technology expenditure,regional innovation,human capital and economic growth,fiscal science and technology expenditure and regional innovation have a positive effect on economic growth,and as the number of periods increases,the positive effect tends to stabilize,that human capital has a negative impact on economic growth,and according to the results of variance decomposition,the main factor of economic growth comes from the driving effect of economic growth itself,followed by regional innovation output and government expenditure on science and technology.

关 键 词：政府科技支出 区域创新 人力资本水平 经济增长 门槛回归模型 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学] F124