影响四川盆地页岩气开发的非技术因素:定义与机理  

Non-technical factors influencing shale gas development in the Sichuan Basin:Definition and mechanism

作　　者：张烈辉[1] 胡文瑞[2] 李小刚[1] 雍锐[3] 陈加旭 陈更生[3] 徐强 吴建发 陈怡男 吴易一 刘鸿渊 陈学忠 鲁友常 赵玉龙[1] ZHANG Liehui;HU Wenrui;LI Xiaogang;YONG Rui;CHEN Jiaxu;CHEN Gengsheng;XU Qiang;WU Jianfa;CHEN Yinan;WU Yiyi;LIU Hongyuan;CHEN Xuezhong;LU Youchang;ZHAO Yulong(State Key Laboratory of Oil&Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation//Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610500,China;Department of Engineering Management,Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China;PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Shale Gas Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;CECEP(Panzhihua)CleanTech Development Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100083,China;Sichuan Changning Natural Gas Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610056,China;Sichuan Shale Gas Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610056,China;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610050,China)

机构地区：[1]“油气藏地质及开发工程”国家重点实验室·西南石油大学 [2]中国工程院工程管理学部 [3]中国石油西南油气田公司 [4]中国石油西南油气田公司页岩气研究院 [5]中节能(攀枝花)清洁技术发展有限公司 [6]四川长宁天然气开发有限责任公司 [7]四川页岩气勘探开发有限责任公司 [8]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2023年第4期24-31,共8页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“耦合压裂缝网扩展机制的页岩气藏动态模拟研究”(编号:51874251);中国石油—西南石油大学创新联合体科技合作项目“川南深层与昭通中浅层海相页岩气规模效益开发关键技术研究”(编号:2020CX020000);中国石油西南油气田分公司院士(专家)工作站项目“非技术因素对我国页岩气产业发展的影响及对策研究”(编号:2019-18629)。

摘　　要：四川盆地及其周缘页岩气可采资源量居全国首位,规模效益开发四川盆地页岩气对保障国家能源安全具有重大战略意义。页岩气开发不仅面临资源评价、钻井工程、压裂工程等方面的技术难题,还受到产业规划、扶持政策、地企协调等非技术因素的影响。为了解决页岩气开发过程中非技术因素概念界定、内涵和影响机理辨识的问题,基于利益相关者理论,以四川盆地南部地区(以下简称川南)页岩气开发为例,明确了影响页岩气开发非技术因素的定义和内涵,在实地调查、专家咨询和实践研究的基础上,构建了非技术因素贝叶斯网络模型,并进行了逆向推理和因果推断,定量辨识了影响川南页岩气开发的主要非技术因素和影响机理。研究结果表明:①影响页岩气开发的非技术因素指涉及页岩气产业兴起和发展进程中所有利益相关者的不确定性因素;②影响川南页岩气开发的主要非技术因素有页岩气产业政策、基层相关部门与企业的沟通机制、企业内部投资管理和群众个人认知;③针对页岩气开发不同阶段,应根据非技术因素影响机理,构建各利益相关者的协调机制,持续优化非技术因素调控措施。结论认为,非技术因素的明确对页岩开发具有重要作用,对推动形成技术因素和非技术因素双轮协同驱动页岩气规模高效开发的新局面具有重要指导意义,并可为保障四川盆地乃至我国页岩气顺利开发和页岩气产业高质量发展具有重要现实意义。The amount of recoverable shale gas resources in the Sichuan Basin and its periphery takes the first place in China,and the large-scale benefit development of shale gas in the Sichuan Basin is of great strategic significance to ensure national energy security.Apart from the technical challenges such as resource assessment,drilling engineering and fracturing engineering,the development of shale gas is also influenced by the non-technical factors including industrial planning,supporting policies,and government-enterprise cooperation.In order to define the concepts of non-technical factors in the process of shale gas development and determine their connotation and influence mechanisms,this paper takes the shale gas development in the southern Sichuan Basin as an example to clarify the definition and connotation of non-technical factors influencing shale gas development according to the stakeholder theory.On the basis of field investigation,expert consultation and practical analysis,a Bayesian network model of non-technical factor is established.In addition,reverse reasoning and causal inference are carried out,and the main non-technical factors influencing the shale gas development in the southern Sichuan Basin and their influence mechanisms are quantitatively identified and confirmed.And the following research results are obtained.First,the non-technical factors influencing shale gas development refer to the uncertainty factors involving all stakeholders in the rising and development process of shale gas industry.Second,the main non-technical factors influencing shale gas development in the southern Sichuan Basin include shale gas industrial policy,communication mechanism between grass-root departments and enterprises,internal investment management of enterprises and individual cognition of the masses.Third,for each stage of shale gas development,a coordination mechanism between different stakeholders should be constructed and the control measures of non-technical factors should be continuously optimized according

关 键 词：四川盆地 页岩气开发 非技术因素 利益相关者 贝叶斯网络 机器学习 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] TE37[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]