“因商而游”亦或“寻文而至”?——“一带一路”倡议与中国入境旅游业  

Traveling for business or for culture?China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its inbound tourism

作　　者：郑鹏 刘壮 王洁洁 陈家怡 席建超[3] ZHENG Peng;LIU Zhuang;WANG Jiejie;CHEN Jiayi;XI Jianchao(School of Management,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou Henan 450001,China;School of Tourism Management and MICE,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou Henan 450046,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学管理学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南财经政法大学旅游与会展学院,河南郑州450046 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第3期181-193,共13页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“新华侨华人文化传播带动国家旅游形象提升研究”(批准号:21BGL260);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(批准号:2019QZKK1004)。

摘　　要：客观评估“一带一路”倡议对中国入境旅游业影响效应,系统梳理该影响的作用机制对推动中国入境旅游发展具有指导意义。文章以“一带一路”倡议实施为准自然实验,使用104国2010—2019年的国际面板数据,建构双重差分模型,并基于经济联系与文化交流视角,使用中介效应和文本挖掘与分析的方法检验作用机制,借鉴调节效应的思路探索机制内可能的交互影响。结论如下:①“一带一路”倡议显著增加了15.03%~30.10%的沿线国家来华旅游人次,促进了中国入境旅游发展。②国际贸易在此促进中发挥中介效用,且相比于进口贸易的中介效应占比39.17%,沿线各国出口贸易中介效应占比为47.05%,对中国入境旅游业影响更大。③文化认同在此促进中发挥中介效用,且“一带一路”倡议对文化认同的影响呈现“三核六调众要素”的方式,热点集中于汉语学习、教育、艺术、中医、电影、出版等方面。④“因商而游”和“寻文而至”的机制并存,且存在着正向的交互影响,沿线各国出口贸易下两者的交互影响大于进口贸易。Objectively evaluating the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s inbound tourism and systematically exploring its mechanisms are of guiding significance for promoting the development of China’s inbound tourism.Using the panel data of 104 countries from 2010 to 2019,this study took the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative as a quasi-natural experiment to construct a difference-in-differences model.Combining perspectives of economic connections and cultural communication,this study also used the methods of mediating effect and text mining and analysis to testify the mechanisms and applied the moderating effect to explore the possible interactions within the mechanisms.The results showed that:①The Belt and Road Initiative significantly increased the number of tourists to China from the countries along the Belt and Road by about 15.03% to 30.10% annually,thus promoting the development of China’s inbound tourism.②International trade played a mediating role in this relationship.Compared with the import trade(39.17%),the export trade(47.05%)had a greater impact on this relationship.③Cultural identity played a mediating role in this relationship.The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on cultural identity presented a mode of‘three cores,six tones,and numerous elements,’with the hot spots focusing on Chinese learning,education,art,traditional Chinese medicine,the motion picture industry,and the publishing industry.④The mechanisms of‘traveling for business’and‘traveling for culture’coexisted and interacted positively.Export trade had a greater impact on the interaction between the two than import trade.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 入境旅游 国际贸易 文化认同 双重差分法 作用机制 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]