渐进式论证、连锁型滑坡论证和连锁悖论的概率分析  

A Probabilistic Analysis of Arguments from Gradualism,Sorites Slippery Slope Arguments and Sorites Paradox

作　　者：邢锟 Kun Xing(School of Marxism,Anyang Normal University)

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院马克思主义学院

出　　处：《逻辑学研究》2023年第2期16-32,共17页Studies in Logic

基　　金：河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2022-ZZJH-301);安阳师范学院科研培育基金项目(AYNUKPY-2020-19);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2021BZX001)资助。

摘　　要：渐进式论证是一种日常生活中常见的但很少得到专门讨论的论证。不过,和渐进式论证形式几乎完全相同的连锁悖论和连锁型滑坡论证,则得到了不少关注和研究。虽然连锁悖论和连锁型滑坡论证传统上都归为谬误,但我们不需要改变论证的形式而只需要限制推理的长度,就能避免得到荒谬的或不可接受的结论。换而言之,并非所有渐进式论证都像连锁悖论和连锁型滑坡论证一样会得出不能接受的结论。那么,渐进式论证究竟何时得出可接受的结论进而成为一个好的论证,何时得出不可接受的结论而成为谬误?对于连锁型滑坡论证,沃尔顿认为若推理过程从可控区域经过灰色区域最终滑向失控区域,就会得出不可接受的结论。不过,关键的灰色区域如何更为精确地定义和识别?本文将使用概率论和模糊集对渐进式论证、连锁悖论和连锁型滑坡论证的论证过程进行定量刻画,从而回答这些问题,并得到这些论证之间的一些内在联系和不同之处。Arguments from gradualism are a type of arguments common to meet in everyday life,yet have not received specific discussion.Instead,with almost the same form,sorites paradox and sorites slippery slope arguments have received much more concerns and studies.Although sorites paradox and sorites slippery slope arguments were traditionally considered to be fallacies,we could avoid obtaining absurd or inacceptable results if we restrict the length of inference in those arguments.In other words,unlike sorites paradox or sorites slippery slope arguments,not all arguments from gradualism will obtain inacceptable results.Then,when will arguments from gradualism obtain acceptable results,so belong to good arguments,and when will they obtain inacceptable results,so belong to bad arguments?D.Walton thought that if a sorites slippery slope argument moved from the controlled zone,through the gray zone,and finally into the uncontrolled zone,it would reach inacceptable results.However,how could we precisely define and recognize the crucial gray zone?To answer those questions,this article will use probability theory and fuzzy set to quantitatively characterize the inference procedure of arguments from gradualism,sorites paradox and sorites slippery slope arguments,and reveal some connections and differences among those three types of arguments.

关 键 词：渐进式论证 连锁型滑坡论证 连锁悖论 概率 模糊集 

分 类 号：B81[哲学宗教—逻辑学]