区域视角下我国老龄化人口的组合预测模型  

Combinational forecasting model of aging population from a regional perspective

作　　者：孙丽苹 袁宏俊[1] 胡凌云[2] SUN Liping;YUAN Hongjun;HU Lingyun(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《延边大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期53-60,共8页Journal of Yanbian University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2020D42);安徽财经大学重大科研基金(ACKYA21004);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金(ACYC2021400)。

摘　　要：为提高预测老龄人口的精度,以残差修正GM(1,1)模型、灰色-BP神经网络模型和Logistic预测模型作为单项模型,建立了一种基于相关系数的诱导有序加权平均(IOWA)算子组合预测模型.利用该模型对2000-2020年我国东部、中部、西部和东北部地区及全国老龄(≥65岁)人口数量进行预测显示,该组合预测模型的预测效果显著优于上述3个单项预测模型,表明该模型能够有效地提高老龄人口的预测精度.利用该组合预测模型对未来10年我国东部、中部、西部和东北部地区及全国老龄人口数进行预测显示:我国老龄人口数总体呈现逐步增长态势,同时区域间的老龄化进程差异也不断增大,其中东部地区老龄人口增长得相对较快,中部地区则增长得相对较慢.该预测结果可为我国老龄人口政策的制定提供参考.In order to improve the predicting accuracy of the aging population,a combinational forecasting model which is based on induced ordered weighted averaging(IOWA)operators and correlation coefficient is established by using the residual modified GM(1,1)model,the gray-BP neural network model and the Logistic forecasting model as the single model.Using this model forecast the aging population(≥65 years old)of the eastern,central,western and northeastern regions and the whole country for 20002020 in China,the forecasting result shows that the predicting effect of the combinational forecasting model is significantly better than that of the above three single forecasting models,indicating the model can effectively improve the predicting accuracy of the aging population.Finally,the combinational forecasting model is used to predict the number of ageing population in the eastern,central,western and northeastern parts of China and the whole country in the next 10 years:the number of ageing population in China generally shows a gradual growth trend,and the differences in the aging process between regions are also increasing,of which the ageing population in the east grows relatively fast and the growth in the central region is relatively slow.The forecasting result can provide a reference for the formulation of Chinese aging population policy.

关 键 词：老龄人口 单项预测模型 IOWA算子 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]