基于F-D曲线法的中国内地地区地震灾害经济可接受风险研究  

Economic acceptable risk of earthquake disasters in Chinese Mainland based on F-D curve method

作　　者：庙成 王骏 林虹宇 杨江涛 MIAO Cheng;WANG Jun;LIN Hongyu;YANG Jiangtao(School of Resources Environment and Life Sciences,Ningxia Normal University,Guyuan 756000,China;Technology Innovation Center of Geohazards Automatic Monitoring,Ministry of Natural Resources,Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources,Chongqing 401120,China;Changning Emergency Management Bureau of Yibin,Changning 644300,China;Zigong Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning,Zigong 643000,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏师范学院资源环境与生命科学学院,宁夏固原756000 [2]自然资源部地质灾害自动化监测技术创新中心,重庆地质矿产研究院,重庆401120 [3]四川省宜宾市长宁县应急管理局,四川长宁644300 [4]四川省自贡市自然资源和规划局,四川自贡643000

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2023年第2期1-10,共10页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：宁夏哲学社会科学规划项目(引才专项)(20NXRCC15);宁夏优秀人才支持计划资助(2021年第六批宁夏回族自治区青年科技人才托举工程)。

摘　　要：合理的地震灾害经济可接受风险水平可以有效管理防灾减灾的投入。基于1991~2020年中国内地地区地震灾害经济损失数据,利用F-D曲线法(Frequency-Damage curve),建立不同震级(M S<5.0、M S 5.0~5.9、M S 6.0~6.9和M S≥7.0)和不同灾情等级(微灾、小灾、中灾、大灾和巨灾)的地震灾害经济可接受风险曲线,并以此为标准讨论30年间由地震产生直接经济损失事件的可接受风险等级。研究结果表明:中国内地地区地震灾害造成0.020亿元直接经济损失的灾损率不超过1.29×10-2/a为可接受经济风险,直接经济损失超过14.763亿元其灾损率为任意值均是不可接受经济风险。由此判断,30年间有18.07%的地震灾害属于不可接受经济风险事件。同理,不同震级和不同灾情等级地震灾害的可接受经济风险水平也被确定,并得到M S<5.0、M S 5.0~5.9、M S 6.0~6.9和M S≥7.0地震灾害分别有23.91%、27.45%、34.78%和30.77%的事件属于不可接受经济风险,微灾、小灾、中灾、大灾和巨灾地震分别有56.00%、48.62%、41.73%、40.00%和44.44%的事件属于不可接受经济风险。该研究结果可以为我国地震灾害经济风险的防范提供相关的理论和实践支撑。Reasonable economic acceptable risk level of earthquake disaster can effectively manage the investment of disaster prevention and mitigation.Based on the economic loss data of earthquake disasters in China's Mainland from 1991 to 2020,the F-D curve method(Frequency-Damage curve)is used to establish the economic acceptable risk curve of earthquake disasters with different magnitudes(M S<5.0,M S 5.0~5.9,M S 6.0~6.9 and M S≥7.0)and different disaster levels(micro-disaster,small-disaster,medium-disaster,large-disaster and catastrophe).And on this standard,the acceptable risk level of direct economic loss events caused by earthquakes in 30 years is discussed.The results show that the direct economic loss of 0.002 billion yuan caused by earthquake disasters in China's Mainland is acceptable if the damage rate does not exceed 1.29×10-2/a,direct economic loss of more than 1.4763 billion yuan of its damage rate for any value is unacceptable economic risk.It can be judged that 18.07%of the earthquake disasters in 30 years are unacceptable economic risk events.Similarly,the acceptable economic risk level of earthquake disasters with different magnitudes and different disaster levels was also determined.It was found that 23.91%,27.45%,34.78%and 30.77%of the events with M S<5.0,M S 5.0~5.9,M S 6.0~6.9 and M S≥7.0 earthquake disasters were unacceptable economic risks respectively,and 56.00%,48.62%,41.73%,40.00%and 44.44%of the events with micro-earthquake,small-earthquake,medium-earthquake,large-earthquake and catastrophe earthquake disasters were unacceptable economic risks respectively.The research results can provide relevant theoretical and practical support for the prevention of economic risk of earthquake disasters in China.

关 键 词：可接受风险 风险标准 经济风险 直接经济损失 地震灾害 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] X915.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]