基于标准折算收费法的高速公路通行费收入预测  

Prediction of Expressway Toll Revenue Based on Standard Conversion Toll Method

作　　者：张磊 ZHANG Lei(Tianjin Municipal Engineering Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin,300051,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市政工程设计研究总院有限公司,天津300051

出　　处：《智能城市应用》2023年第2期37-41,共5页Smart City Application

摘　　要：高速公路通行费收入是投资决策、资产盘活评估的基础,从高速公路通行费收入影响因素出发,对不同高速公路通行费预测模型进行对比分析后,提出了一种历史数据的标准折算收费预测方法,结合四川实际实际高速公路应用与其他预测方法进行对比分析,并对不同场景条件下的方法选择提出了建议。Expressway toll revenue is the foundation of investment decision-making and asset revitalization evaluation.Starting from the influencing factors of expressway toll revenue,this paper compares and analyzes different expressway toll prediction models,and proposes a standard conversion toll prediction method based on historical data.Combining with the actual application of highways in Sichuan,this paper compares and analyzes with other prediction methods,and proposes suggestions for selecting methods under different scenario conditions.

关 键 词：高速公路 通行费收入 预测模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]