外来移民对城市房价的影响:一种基于本地居民流动性的分解  

The Effect of Immigrants on Cities Housing Prices:A Decomposition Based on the Emigration of Local Residents

作　　者：杨本建[1] 林云鹏 Benjian Yang;Yunpeng Lin(School of Economics,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2023年第1期280-309,共30页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金“城市群视角下技术创新的内生机理及其经济增长效应研究”(项目编号:6CJL010);广东省自然科学基金“产业政策协同影响产业升级的理论与实证研究”;暨南大学宁静致远项目“产业政策协同对产业升级的影响研究:微观机制、实证证据与政策设计”的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：本文采用一种新的分解方法,将外来移民对城市房价的总效应分解为外来移民的直接需求效应和通过影响本地居民流动性从而影响城市房价的引致需求效应,并估计了这两种效应在解释城市房价上涨中所占的比例。运用2015年1%人口抽样调查微观数据以及中国房地产指数系统的百城住房价格数据,实证结果表明,外来移民占比增加1%,城市房价上涨0.59%,其中,移民的直接需求效应可以解释总效应的73.9%,剩余26.1%由外来移民的引致需求效应解释。本文结果意味着,外来移民不仅会通过直接的需求效应推动城市房价上涨,而且还会通过影响本地居民的流动性从而间接影响城市住房价格,忽略这一引致需求效应将会低估外来移民对城市房价的影响。This paper uses a method to decompose the total effect of immigrants on cities housing prices into the direct demand effect and the derived demand effect which caused by local residents migration, and estimates the size of these two effects in explaining cities housing prices growth. Using 1% Population Survey of 2015 and 100 cities housing price data in China’s real estate index system, our empirical results show that the proportion of immigrants increases 1%, the urban housing price rises 0.59%, and the direct demand effect of immigrants can explain 73.9% of this total effect, the remaining 26.1% is explained by indirect effect of immigrants. Our results imply that immigrants promote cities housing prices not only by the direct demand effect, but also by indirect affect which influence the mobility of local residents, ignoring this indirect effect will underestimate the effect of immigrants on urban housing prices.

关 键 词：外来移民 城市住房价格 本地居民流动性 直接需求效应 引致需求效应 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] D632.4[政治法律—政治学]