宏观审慎、流动性约束与货币政策选择——基于DSGE模型的模拟分析  

Macro-prudential,Liquidity Constraint and Monetary Policy Choice——Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model

作　　者：李宜达 YIDA LI(School of Business,Shantou University Mezzoeconomics Research Center,Guangdong University of Finance&Economics)

机构地区：[1]汕头大学商学院 [2]广东财经大学中观经济学研究中心

出　　处：《工信财经科技》2023年第2期26-41,共16页Review of Financial & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中间汇率制度为何长期存在:经验识别、理论解释与政策评估”(项目编号:72173074);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目“汇率干预、资本管制与宏观审慎政策:中国故事与政策含义”(项目编号:2022A1515010774);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目“新兴经济体的汇率稳定倾向:内在驱动还是外部决定?”(项目编号:2021A1515011624)。

摘　　要：从国家金融学理论出发,本文构建了一个开放经济条件下包含资产流动性约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,重点分析并比较了在人民币存在国际流动性约束的情形下,宏观审慎政策工具与不同货币规则的搭配效果。研究发现,人民币国际流动性约束对中国主要宏观经济变量的波动存在不同程度的扭曲,两种货币规则下的经济系统对货币政策冲击的响应也存在显著的差异,并且在利率规则下采用宏观审慎政策工具对于缓解产出波动具有更为明显的效果。研究表明,在高质量开放进程中,中国应有序推进人民币国际化,同时重视引入汇率变化的泰勒规则的运用,进一步完善货币规则与宏观审慎的协调搭配机制,增强政策合力,以实现调控效果最优化。Based on the theory of national finance,this paper constructs a DSGE model with asset liquidity constraint under the condition of an open economy,and focuses on analyzing and comparing the matching effects of macro-prudential policy tools and different monetary rules under the condition of international liquidity constraint in the RMB.The study finds that the international liquidity constraint of the RMB distort the fluctuations of China's major macroeconomic variables to varying degrees,and the response of the economic system to the impact of monetary policy under the two monetary rules is also significantly different,and the adoption of macro-prudential policy tools under the interest rate rules has a more obvious effect on easing output fluctuation.The research shows that in the process of high-quality opening up,China should orderly promote the internationalization of the RMB,pay attention to the application of the Taylor rule of introducing exchange rate changes,further improve the coordination mechanism of monetary rules and macro-prudential,and enhance the policy synergy to achieve the optimal regulatory effect.

关 键 词：宏观审慎 流动性约束 货币政策选择 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F822.0