人口低增长、闲暇需求与中国的短期劳动供给  

Low Population Growth,Leisure Demand and Short-Term Labor Supply in China

作　　者：魏翔 胡典成[1] WEI Xiang;HU Diancheng(School of Business,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Financial Strategy Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学商学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100006

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2023年第3期35-51,共17页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“自动化浪潮下零工经济的薪酬特性及其就业效应研究”(20BJY056)。

摘　　要：由于人口变量是个长期变量,因此大多数先行文献认为人口变动对劳动供给的影响存在较长的滞后性,因而极少关注人口变动对短期劳动供给的即时影响。通过将生育率和个体闲暇选择同时内生化以捕捉人口变动对劳动供给的短期影响。理论模型证明,在人口低增长阶段,即便人口的绝对量增加,短期劳动供给仍然会减少。利用中国的省级面板数据有效证实了理论模型的预测,并进一步解释了上述影响的发生机制:人口进入低速增长期后,人们的闲暇需求相对提高,因而劳动者会减少劳动供给。同时,研究也发现,增强人力资本转化率(教育质量)可以减缓人口低增长对劳动供给带来的不利短期影响,并结合国民闲暇质量和教育质量提出了相关政策建议。Because population factor is a long-term one,previous literature generally pays attention to the impact of population changes on the long-term labor supply in the future,and seldom pays attention to whether population changes can bring about short-term changes in labor supply in the current period.By endogenizing both the fertility rate and leisure choice,the short-term effect of population change on labor supply is analyzed.Theoretical model shows that in the low population growth stage,even if the total population amount increased,short-term labor supply would decrease.The panel data of 30 provinces in China testifies the prediction of the theoretical model and further explains the mechanism of the above effect:when population enters low growth period,people's leisure demand increases and so labor supply decreases.At the same time,research finds that strengthening the conversion rate of human capital(quality of education)can weaken the short-term effect of low population growth on labor supply,and policy recommendations are proposed combining with the quality of national leisure and education.

关 键 词：人口增长 劳动供给 闲暇需求 人力资本 资本产出弹性 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]