需求收缩、供给冲击与预期走弱三重压力下跨越“中等收入陷阱”再解析  

Reanalysis of the Middle-Income Trap under the Triple Pressure of Demand Contraction,Supply Shock and Weakening Expectation

作　　者：张炜[1] 妥璟旖 ZHANG Wei;TUO Jingyi(School of Economics,Tianjin University of Commerce,Tianjin 300134,China)

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,天津300134

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2023年第3期52-67,共16页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学重点规划项目“货币政策传导机制与调控方式转型”(TJLJ20-003)。

摘　　要：以新形势下中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的事实验证为基础,构建三重压力经济增长模型与门槛效应模型,分析政府财政政策与央行货币政策有效性。研究发现:在供给冲击下,政府为实现“中等收入陷阱”的跨越,往往对工业部门实施政策支持,导致“鲍莫尔成本病”,产生制度层面的产业结构扭曲;工业品消费可以促进中低收入国家经济发展,但对高收入国家的带动作用明显减弱,故从消费层面调整工业品与非工业品在总消费中的结构占比可以促进“中等收入陷阱”的跨越;在预期走弱影响下,通胀对利率的反应程度较低,央行就很难通过降低利率实现货币政策效果,且容易产生金融抑制,跨越中等收入陷阱的困难度加大。从产业结构扭曲的制度层面与金融抑制的金融发展层面提出相应政策建议。Based on the factual verification that China has crossed the"middle-income trap"under the new situation,a triple pressure economic growth model and a threshold effect model are constructed,and the effectiveness of government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy is analyzed.The study finds:under the supply shock,in order to cross the"middle-income trap",the government provides policy support for the industry sectors,which leads to"Baumol's cost disease"and the distortion of the industrial structure based on the system level;consumption of industrial products can improve the economic development of middle and low income countries but the stimulating effect in the high income countries becomes obviously weaker,so adjusting the consumption structure of industry and non-industry products can promote crossing the"middle-income trap";due to the effect of weakening expectation,the reaction of inflation to the interest rate stays in a low degree,the central bank is difficult to realize the monetary policy effect by decreasing interest rate and the financial repression is easy to appear,and so crossing the"middle-income"trap becomes more difficult.Finally,the corresponding policy suggestions are proposed from the institutional level of industrial structure distortion and financial development level of financial repression.

关 键 词：需求收缩 供给冲击 预期走弱 “中等收入陷阱” 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]