中国芯片进口供应链中断风险、可替代性及其经济影响评估  

Evaluation of Supply Chain Disruption Risk,Replaceability and the Economic Impact of China's Chip Imports

作　　者：崔连标[1] 翁世梅 莫建雷 CUI Lianbiao;WENG Shimei;MO Jianlei

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院 [2]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第3期124-140,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定条件下中国温室气体与大气污染物的协同控制研究”(71974001);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目“复杂系统风险管理”(2021150);安徽省高校杰出青年科研项目“面向减污降碳协同增效的复杂系统建模及应用研究”(2022AH020048)。

摘　　要：本文从芯片供应链中断风险及其可替代性视角出发,探究了美国主导对华芯片禁运的国际经济影响。首先从理论层面对芯片禁运的作用机理进行分析,其次将芯片从电子信息行业中剥离出来,构造包含独立芯片部门的全球投入产出数据库,最后构建全球8地区12部门动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟芯片禁运对不同地区的经济冲击及其时间演变规律,并进行稳健性检验。结果发现:(1)芯片禁运对我国经济的负面影响不容小觑,尤其是当美国联合韩国、日本和中国台湾同时实施禁运时,我国宏观经济和就业将受到显著冲击;(2)芯片禁运对美国自身的经济影响有限,而跟随美国参与禁运的韩国和日本等地经济损失较高;(3)芯片禁运会削弱我国产品的国内和国际竞争力,且随着竞争力损失的不断叠加,我国产业损失和宏观经济损失均会加大;(4)增强国产芯片对进口芯片的替代能力,并强化不同芯片进口来源之间的可替代性,能够减少我国经济受到的负面冲击。本研究对我国有效应对美国芯片封锁具有参考价值。This paper explores the global economic impact of the US-led chip embargo alliance against China from the perspective of disruption risk and replaceability of the chip supply chain.We first investigate the mechanism of the US chip embargo from a theoretical perspective.Then,we separate the chip industry from the electronic information industry and construct a global input-output database containing data of the independent chip sector.Finally,we construct a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of 12 sectors in 8 regions globally to simulate the economic impacts of the chip embargo on different regions and their time evolution pattern,and conduct robustness tests.The results find:(1)there is a significantly negative impact on China's macroeconomic output and employment especially when the chip embargo is simultaneously implemented by the US in cooperation with South Korea,Japan and Chinese Taiwan.(2)The chip embargo has limited influence on the US economy,while economic losses are higher in regions such as South Korea and Japan which have followed the US in the embargo.(3)The chip embargo weakens the domestic and international competitiveness of Chinese products,and the cumulative losses of competitiveness result in increasing industry and macroeconomic losses.(4)China is able to reduce the adverse effects on the economy by enhancing the substitution capacity of domestic chips and strengthening the replaceability of different chip import sources.This study has policy implications for China to effectively deal with the US chip embargo.

关 键 词：芯片禁运 技术联盟 供应链中断 动态可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F13[经济管理—世界经济]