返乡抑或留城:农民工劳动力供求结构分析  

Returning Home or Staying in the City:Analysis on Labor Supply and Demand Structure of Migrant Workers in China

作　　者：艾慧 张曼琦 AI Hui;ZHANG Man-qi(Economic Research Center,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期57-68,共12页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(17YJA790001)。

摘　　要：常住与户籍人口城镇化率的差距拉大及农民工回流表明:农民工市民化政策目标与效果存在差距。上述问题与农民工就业结构、空间配置紧密相关:第一,需求层面:存在农民工就业结构性失衡;城市扩张强化对农民工的劳动力需求,但面临学历错位。第二,供给层面:从农民工根本利益出发,对定居意愿、用益物权和住房性质进行Probit计量分析发现:拥有土地承包权和宅基地使用权对定居意愿呈负向影响,土地流转、在城市拥有住房或正规性租房均有正向影响。住房性质(购房/自建房与租房)对用益物权的影响具有调节作用。第三,供求综合分析:就业错位和学历错位影响其城市收入,政策错位可能降低户籍吸引力从而影响迁移意愿,弱化定居意愿的因素占主导。应加强农民工就业技能培训,加强城市尤其是县域的住房保障及公共服务供给,尽快扭转三大错位,推进市民化与助力乡村振兴并进。The widening gap between resident population and registered population,together with the home-returning of migrant workers shows there is a gap between the policy objectives and actual effects.The above problems are closely related to the employment structure and spatial allocation;first,on the labor demand level,there exists structural imbalance in migrant workers′employment;migrant labors are much needed in urban expansion,however,they may confront qualification displacement.Second,on the labor supply level,we find through quantitative and Probit analysis on labors′will of settlement,real right for usufruct and housing ownership,that the ownership of land contracting rights and homestead use rights has a negative impact on labor s′willingness to settle,land circulation,contracting land and using right of rural residence base;while land transfer,urban housing both have a positive impact,showing that the nature of housing has a regulating effect on the impact of usufruct rights.Third,on the supply and demand level,comprehensive analysis shows that employment and education mismatch affect urban income;policy mismatch may reduce the appeal of urban household registration and further influence labors′will on transfer,weaken labors′settlement will.Therefore,to intensify trainings of migrant workers employment skills,to provide more public services and ensure the housing security,and to reverse the mismatches are crucial in promoting multi-level urbanization and rural revitalization.

关 键 词：农民工 劳动力供求 定居意愿 结构性错位 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]