不同云微物理方案对飞机结冰气象条件预测评估分析  

Evaluation of Different Cloud Microphysics Schemes on the Meteorological Condition Prediction of Aircraft Icing

作　　者：郭琪磊[1,2] 桑为民 牛俊杰[2] 仪志胜 夏贞锋[3] 苗帅 GUO Qilei;SANG Weimin;NIU Junjie;YI Zhisheng;XIA Zhenfeng;MIAO Shuai(Engineering Techniques Training Center,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307,P.R.China;School of Aeronautics,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,P.R.China;China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics,Beijing 100074,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院工程技术训练中心,广汉618307 [2]西北工业大学航空学院,西安710072 [3]中国航天空气动力技术研究院,北京100074

出　　处：《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》2023年第2期124-136,共13页南京航空航天大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Key Project of China(No.GJXM92579);the Aero⁃nautic Science Foundation of China(No.2018ZA53014);the Shenyang Key Laboratory of Aircraft Icing and Ice Protection.

摘　　要：飞行安全在复杂气象条件下易受结冰影响而受到威胁。能够结合地形特征并准确预测结冰气象条件是保障飞行安全的重要因素。本文利用中尺度天气预报模型模式,以4种不同的云微物理方案组合对美国华盛顿山地区的两次结冰事件进行了数值模拟。结果表明:预测的液态水含量和温度与现有文献匹配较好,而Morrison方案组合在误差分析中表现最佳。此外,讨论了水平分辨率和云微物理方案对液态水含量和云中液滴平均有效直径预测的敏感性。由于地形所引起的垂直运动是产生云水的主要动因,较高的水平分辨率能够做出更为准确的预测。最后利用IC指数对结冰强度进行了分析,表明结冰严重程度具有明显的时空多变特性,以及对云微物理方案的敏感性。本文工作有望加强对云微物理方案的理解和认识,并为选择适合的云微物理方案进行结冰天气预测提供了依据。Flight safety is at risk due to complex icing meteorological conditions,highlighting the need for accurate prediction models that integrate geographical features.The mesoscale weather research and forecasting(WRF)model is utilized to simulate two icing events on Mt.Washington in the United States with four cloud microphysics configurations.Results indicate that the predicted liquid water content(LWC)and temperature are well matching results in the existing literature,and the Morrison configuration provides the most significant performance in the error analysis.Additionally,the sensitivity of horizontal resolution and cloud microphysics scheme for LWC and the mean effective diameter of cloud droplet(MVD)prediction is discussed,with higher horizontal resolution demonstrating greater accurate performance due to terrain-induced vertical motions.The study concludes with an analysis of icing intensity using the IC index,showing pronounced spatiotemporal variability and sensitivity to cloud microphysics schemes.Overall,this work enhances our understanding of cloud microphysics schemes and provides a base for selecting appropriate cloud microphysical solutions for icing weather prediction.

关 键 词：飞机结冰 数值预测 云微物理方案 气象环境 天气预报模型 

分 类 号：V211.3[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]