河北南部农作物生长季降水满足度与干旱风险度研究  

Study on Precipitation Satisfaction Degree and Drought Risk Degree of Crop Growing Season in Southern Hebei Province

作　　者：李瑞苏 LI Ruisu(Shahe Meteorological Bureau,Shahe,Hebei 054100)

机构地区：[1]河北省沙河市气象局,河北沙河054100

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第12期75-80,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项“气象灾害防御新技术研究”(2017YFC1502804);邢台市重点研发自筹项目“沙河市王硇景区红叶变色气象预报模型初探”(2021ZC199)。

摘　　要：探明冀南地区农作物生长季降水量的变化及其满足度与干旱风险度,有望为农业产业结构调整、干旱风险规避和农业生产管理提供参考。利用邯郸、邢台、衡水区域具有代表性气象监测站1971—2020年的降水和气温数据,采用气候诊断分析方法,选用综合湿润指数及其干湿指数研究降水量对农作物生长季的满足程度、干旱变化特征及干旱风险程度。结果表明:1971—2020年冀南地区农作物生长季降水量呈增加趋势,线性增加38.9 mm;农作物生长季降水满足度和干湿指数呈上升趋势,线性上升12.5%和0.18;农作物生长季干旱风险度呈显著下降趋势,2002/2003年出现上升突变,突变之后最大干旱风险度下降8.9个百分点,年平均干旱风险度下降12.6个百分点。干旱发生的主要时间段在4—5月(播种—苗期),其干旱程度约下降1个等级。1971—2020年冀南地区干旱频率较高,4—5月降水增加对春季干旱风险起到了一定的缓解作用,但仍存在2~3年一次大旱的概率,因此,农业结构调整势在必行。By exploring the change of precipitation and its satisfaction degree and drought risk degree in the growing season of crops in southern Hebei Province,the study aims to provide reference for agricultural industrial structural adjustment,avoidance of drought risk,and agricultural production management.Based on the precipitation and temperature data of representative meteorological monitoring stations in Handan,Xingtai and Hengshui from 1971 to 2020,the climate diagnostic analysis method was adopted to study the satisfaction degree of precipitation to crop growing season,the characteristics of drought change and the degree of drought risk by using the integral moisture index and dry and wet index.The results showed that precipitation in the growing season of crops in the southern part of Hebei Province showed an increasing trend from 1971 to 2020,with a linear increase of 38.9 mm.Precipitation satisfaction and dry and wet index in crop growing season showed increasing trends,with the linear increase of 12.5%and 0.18,respectively.The drought risk of crop growing season showed a significantly decreasing trend,and abruptly increased in 2002/2003.After the mutation,the maximum drought risk decreased by 8.9 percentage points,and the annual average drought risk decreased by 12.6 percentage points.The drought occurred mainly in April to May(seeding stage to seedling stage),and the drought degree decreased by about 1 grade.The drought frequency was high in southern Hebei Province from 1971 to 2020,and the increase of precipitation in April and May played a certain role in alleviating the drought risk in spring,but there was still the probability of a major drought every 2 to 3 years.Therefore,it is imperative to adjust the agricultural structure.

关 键 词：农作物生长季 降水量 综合湿润指数 干湿指数 干旱风险度 冀南 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]