青藏高原近60年降水变化研究进展  

Review on precipitation change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in recent 60 years

作　　者：郝爱华 薛娴 尤全刚 勾朝阳[1] Hao Aihua;Xue Xian;You Quangang;Gou Chaoyang(Department of Geography,Xinzhou Normal University,Xinzhou 034000,Shanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Desertand Desertification,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou730000,China)

机构地区：[1]忻州师范学院地理系,山西忻州034000 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2023年第2期43-52,共10页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0305);国家自然科学基金项目(41771233)。

摘　　要：作为全球海拔最高的独特自然地理单元,青藏高原对局部、区域乃至全球天气和气候系统具有显著影响。基于气象台站观测资料,对1960年以来青藏高原整体和区域尺度的降水量和极端降水量变化特征及其影响因素研究进行了回顾。结果表明:近60年青藏高原年降水量呈现上升趋势,变化速率为3.8~12.0 mm/10a,但其显著性存在争议。冬春两季降水量显著增加,春季降水量上升速率最大,夏秋两季降水量变化趋势不明显。区域尺度上,三江源区年降水量总体呈现上升趋势,变化速率为7.3~20 mm/10a;雅鲁藏布江流域年降水量呈现不明显上升趋势,变化速率为0.4~9.0 mm/10a;祁连山区年降水量显著增加,变化速率1.0~13.2 mm/10a;年降水量增长速率在青海高原为1.9~3.3 mm/10a,西藏高原为12.5 mm/10a,柴达木盆地为6.7~8.6 mm/10a,共和盆地为7.2 mm/10a。青藏高原极端降水量和极端降水日数明显增多,但是极端降水量变化空间异质性特征显著。青藏高原降水变化的影响因素很多,主要包括大尺度大气环流、高原地表状况及气候变暖。未来应采用更多类型数据源监测青藏高原降水变化,尤其是区域或流域尺度,进一步完善青藏高原降水变化机制研究。The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)is a unique physiographic region with the highest elevationof in the world.It is known to have a significant impact on local,regional,and even global weather and climate systems.Based on observational data from meteorological stations,here we review variation characteristics of average and extreme precipitation and associated influencing factors in the QTP since 1960.Results show that annual average precipitation throughout the Tibetan Plateau has increased over the past 60 years,with variation rates ranging from 3.8 mm to 12.0 mm/decade,but its significance level is disputed.Precipitation has increased significantly in winter and spring,being highest in spring,while no obvious precipitation change has been observed in summer and autumn.At a regional scale,precipitation in the Three Rivers'Headstream Region exhibited an increasing trend,with a variation rate between 7.3-20 mm/decade.Annual mean precipitation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin did not exhibit an obvious increasing trend,with a changing rate between 0.4-9.0 mm/decade.Precipitation in the Qilian Mountains increased significantly,with a variation rate between 1.0-13.2 mm/decade.The average annual precipitation rate was 1.9-3.3 mm/decade in the Qinghai Plateau,12.5 mm/decade in the Tibetan Plateau,6.7-8.6 mm/decade in the Qaidam Basin,and 7.2 mm/decade in the Gonghe Basin.Extreme precipitation events and the number of extreme precipitation days have increased significantly throughout the QTP,and the spatial heterogeneity of extreme precipitation changes has been significant.Many factors have been shown to affect precipitation change throughout the QTP,including large-scale atmospheric circulation factors,plateau surface conditions,and climate warming.Further researches should use more types of data sources to monitor precipitation changes throughout the QTP,especially precipitation changes at regional or watershed scales,and to further improve the mechanism research of precipitation changes over the QTP.

关 键 词：青藏高原 降水变化 极端降水 影响因素 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]