基于FLUS模型粤港澳大湾区“三生空间”多情景模拟预测  

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecological-productive-living spaces in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area based on FLUS model

作　　者：袁雪松 周俊 胡蓓蓓 高强 Yuan Xuesong;Zhou Jun;Hu Beibei;Gao Qiang(Collage of Geography and Environmental Science,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China)

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院,天津300387

出　　处：《地理科学》2023年第3期564-574,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2019FY20250003)资助。

摘　　要：运用Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS)模型,基于2010年、2015年、2020年3期土地利用数据,选取自然和社会经济因素的16个驱动因子,设置生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及“三生空间”协调4种情景,对2025年和2035年粤港澳大湾区“三生空间”进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1) 2020—2035年粤港澳大湾区生产空间在生产空间优先情景下持续增长,在生态空间优先情景下持续减少,在“三生空间”协调与生活空间优先情景下都呈现先增加后减少的趋势。(2) 2020—2035年粤港澳大湾区生活空间在4种情景下均趋于增长,生产空间优先情景下增长最少,生活空间优先情景下增长最多。(3) 2020—2035年粤港澳大湾区生态空间仅在生态空间优先情景下增长,其余3种情景下均减少。(4)“三生空间”在粤港澳大湾区边缘山区变化较小,中部平原地区变化较明显。Based on the data of land use in 2010,2015 and 2020 and 16 driving factors including natural and socio-economic factors,the Future Land Use Simulation model(FLUS)was used to simulate and predict the ecological-productive-living spaces of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)in 2025 and 2035 under four scenarios of production space priority,living space priority,ecological space priority,and ecological-productive-living spaces coordination.The results showed that:1)From 2020 to 2035,the production space in GBA continued to increase under the production space priority scenario,it continued to decrease under the ecological space priority scenario;The production space increased firstly,then decreased under the ecological-productive-living spaces coordination scenario and the living space priority scenario.2)From 2020 to 2035,the living space in GBA increased under all four scenarios.It increased least under the production space priority scenario;it increased most under the living space priority scenario.3)From 2020 to 2035,the ecological space in GBA only increased under the ecological space priority scenario;It decreased under all three remaining scenarios.4)The change of the ecological-productive-living spaces in the mountainous area at the edge of the GBA under the four scenarios is relatively small.But the change of the ecological-productive-living spaces in the central plain area is more obvious.The results of multi-scenario simulation can provide a spatial reference for the realization of sustainable development and the completion of an international first-class bay area in GBA.

关 键 词：“三生空间” 土地利用 FLUS模型 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]