中国能源价格波动的传导机制研究——基于投入产出价格模型  

Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Energy Price Fluctuations in China:Based on input-output price model

作　　者：隆瓅瑶 黄靖贵 罗林媚 石欣烨 LONG Li-yao;HUANG Jing-gui;LUO Lin-mei;SHI Xin-ye(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530100,China;Research Institute of Maritime Silk Road and Guangxi Regional Development,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁师范大学数学与统计学院,广西南宁530100 [2]广西财经学院海上丝绸之路与广西区域发展研究院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《南宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期88-99,共12页Journal of Nanning Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“西部大城市流动人口相对贫困及其治理研究”(20BZZ054);广西哲学社会科学基金项目:地方债务统计监测预警及金融风险防范研究(20FTJ002)。

摘　　要：中国产业融合的程度持续加深,能源产品价格波动及其传导机制成为产业经济研究的重要内容。考虑到传统投入产出模型反映产品部门成本传导能力不足的问题,需建立产品部门成本传导能力的投入产出价格影响模型。基于2020年全国投入产出表,模拟不同情景下能源产品价格波动对各部门产品价格及其价格指数的影响,并探讨能源产品价格的传导机制。研究结果表明:能源价格上涨会通过产业链进行传导,第二产业产品部门最受影响,其中,煤炭加工品、化学原料及化学制品制造业部门受冲击最大;从对价格指数的影响来看,消费类产品价格指数比生产类产品价格指数更容易受能源价格波动的影响,城市居民消费比农村居民消费受能源价格波动影响更大。With the continuous deepening of industrial integration in China,the price fluctuation of energy products and its transmission mechanism have become an important part of industrial economic research.Considering that the traditional input-output model reflects the insufficient cost transmission capacity of the product sector,this study has established an input-output price impact model considering the cost transmission capacity of the product sector,and based on the 2020 national input-output table,simulated the impact of energy product price fluctuations on the price and price index of each product sector under different scenarios,and analyzed the transmission mechanism of energy product prices in China.The results show that the rise of energy prices will be transmitted through the industrial chain,and the product sector of the secondary industry will be the most affected,among which the coal processing products,chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sectors will be the most affected;From the perspective of the impact on the price index,the price index of consumer products is more susceptible to the fluctuation of energy prices than that of production products,and the consumption of urban residents is more affected by the fluctuation of energy prices than that of rural residents.

关 键 词：投入产出价格模型 能源价格 成本传导能力 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]