特朗普政府对外决策与中美关系中的智库因素  

The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy-Making and the Sino-U.S.Relations under the Influence of Think Tanks

作　　者：宋静 王颖嵘 Song Jing;Wang Yingrong(College of Marxism,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学马克思主义学院,太原030006

出　　处：《智库理论与实践》2023年第2期119-125,共7页Think Tank:Theory & Practice

基　　金：2019年度国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“美国智库与对华外交决策研究”(项目编号:19FGJB008)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]作为美国精英政治的制度设计,智库在政府制定政策上发挥着特殊的先导作用。因此,考察美国智库的对华政策研究及参与决策的过程是预测和分析美国对华战略和外交政策制定的重要视角与论证依据。[方法/过程]采用代表性案例分析美国智库在特朗普时期对华战略和政策制定以及执行过程中的运作。[结果/结论]特朗普政府倚重保守派智库,把中国定位为“战略竞争者”。其中,传统基金会在竞选期间充当了“影子过渡团队”,并确立了对华政策的总体框架。哈德逊研究所成为特朗普政府发布对华政策的首选地,并对华展开意识形态浓厚的舆论战。企业研究所和全国亚洲研究局通过在国会山的游说活动,呼吁“部分脱钩”。新美国安全中心精心策划印太战略总布局。战略与国际问题研究中心和2049计划研究所牵头将中国台湾问题纳入印太战略。同时,保守派智库提出“一带一路”倡议的替代方案,推动“四方安全对话”的机制化运行。总体上,特朗普政府对华决策的模式“以破为主,破中有立”,实现从亚太再平衡向印太战略的转变。由此,美中竞争从经贸向各个领域扩散,中美关系步入下行轨道。[Purpose/significance]As the institutional design of American elite politics,think tanks play a special leading role in government policy making.Therefore,it is an important perspective and argument basis for predicting and analyzing the U.S.strategy and foreign policy formulation to examine the process of U.S.think tanks’research on China policy and participation in decision-making.[Method/process]The paper mainly adopts case analysis method to analyze the role of U.S.think tanks in the Trump administration’s strategy formulation,policy making to China and the operation during the implementation course.[Result/conclusion]The Trump administration accepts positioning China as a“strategic competitor”,relying on conservative think tanks’advice.Among them,the Heritage Foundation acts as a“shadow transition team”during the election campaign and plans to establish an overall framework for competition policy towards China.The Hudson Institute becomes the center of releasing China policy,and launches an ideological opinion war against China.The Enterprise Research Institute and the National Bureau of Asian Studies calls for“partial decoupling”through lobbying on Capitol Hill.CNAS carefully plans the layout of the Indo-Pacific strategy.CSIS and the Project 2049 Institute try to integrate the Taiwan Question into the Indo-Pacific strategy.At the same time,conservative think tanks propose alternative solutions to the Belt and Road initiative and promote the institutionalization of the Quad Security Dialogue.On the whole,the Trump administration’s decision-making model of American policy toward China is“basing on breaking,combining with building”,realizing the transformation from the Asia-Pacific rebalancing to the India-Pacific strategy,which marks a turning point of the US-China relations since the normalization.As a result,the competition between the two nations has spread from economy and trade to various fields,and the Sino-US relations has entered a downward track.

关 键 词：美国智库 特朗普政府 外交决策 中美关系 

分 类 号：D801[政治法律—政治学]