中国宏观经济态势与政策分析——2022年的回顾与2023年的展望  

CHINA'S MACROECONOMY AND POLICY ANALYSES——Looking Back on 2022 and Looking Forward to 2023

作　　者：刘伟 苏剑[2] LIU Wei;SU Jian(School of Economics,Renmin University of China;School of Economics,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]北京大学经济学院,100871

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2023年第3期13-23,共11页Economic Theory and Business Management

摘　　要：2022年中国GDP同比增长3%,经济运行呈现V型走势,比年初制定的增速目标低2.5个百分点。展望2023年,全国总人口减少、劳动力急剧下滑、新冠肺炎疫情走向、市场预期转变、前期政策影响、国际政治和经济形势变化等问题将成为影响未来中国经济发展的重要因素。中国经济自然走势将是供给、需求双恢复的格局,但仍低于潜在增长率。此外,房地产危机、地方政府债务、汇率及货币危机、外部经济环境等将成为未来中国经济发展的重要风险点。鉴于此,2023年的政策目标应以需求端作为主要发力点,同时对供给端的稳定恢复和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持,宏观调控政策需以需求供给双扩张的政策取向同时搭配市场环境管理为辅,形成政策组合。In 2022,China's economy showed a V-shaped trend,with a GDP growth rate of 3%,which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the growth target set at the beginning of the year.Looking forward to 2023,issues such as the reduction of the country's total population,the sharp decline in labor force,the trend of COVID-19 epidemic,the changes in market expectations,the impact of previous policies,and changes in international political and economic situation will become important factors affecting China's economic development in the future.The natural trend of China's economy will be a pattern of recovery both in supply and demand,but will still be lower than the potential growth rate.In addition,real estate market crisis,local government debt,exchange rate and currency crisis,and external economic environment will become important risk points for China's economic development in the future.In view of this,the policy target for 2023 should focus on the demand side,and at the same time provide necessary support for the stable recovery of the supply side and the continuous improvement of the market environment.

关 键 词：2023年经济展望 经济安全 自然走势 政策目标 宏观调控 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]