新发展格局下中国居民消费率研究——基于三次产业的视角  

Research on the Consumption Rate of Chinese Residents under the New Development Pattern——Based on the Perspective of Primary,Secondary and Tertiary Industries

作　　者：姚其林 张恒龙[1] YAO Qi-lin;ZHANG Heng-long(School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院,上海200444

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2023年第2期32-40,共9页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：上海市人民政府决策咨询研究课题重点项目“上海数字金融跨越式发展的突破口与政策支撑体系研究”(2022-A-011)。

摘　　要：居民消费率的提高对畅通国内大循环具有重要的战略意义。基于三次产业的视角对居民消费率的影响进行脉冲响应分析,研究发现:第一产业的增长对居民消费率具有显著的正向效应,且具有较长的持续性;第二产业的增长对居民消费率呈现出显著的负向影响,并伴有较长的时序性;长期来讲,第三产业的增长对居民消费率产生了微弱的正向促进作用。从产业视角来看,我国居民消费率偏低的部分因素与转型期所处的工业化阶段有关。鉴于此,新发展阶段应促进三次产业的协调发展,推进资本要素的市场化改革,提高第三产业增长的关联效应与波及效应,以推动我国工业化与国内大循环的良性互动。The improvement of residents'consumption rate is of great strategic significance to unblock the domestic circulation.The consumption rate of residents is studied from the perspective of primary,secondary and tertiary industries.Through impulse response analysis,it further finds that the growth of the primary industry has a significant positive effect on the resident consumption rate,and has a long sustainability.The growth of the secondary industry has a significant negative impact on the resident consumption rate,with a long time sequence.In the long run,the growth of the tertiary industry has a weak positive effect on the resident consumption rate.From the perspective of industry,some factors of the low consumption rate of Chinese residents are related to the industrialization process during the system transition.Therefore,in the new development stage,we should promote the coordinated development of the primary,secondary and tertiary industries,advance the market-oriented reform of capital elements,improve the correlation effect and spillover effect of the growth of the tertiary industry,so as to reinforce the positive interaction between China's industrialization and the domestic circulation.

关 键 词：居民消费需求 居民消费率 三次产业 面板VAR模型 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学]