东道国制度环境、市场规模和中国对外直接投资——基于“一带一路”国家的半参数变系数空间面板模型  

Host Countries' Institutional Environment,Market Size and China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Based on the Semi-parametric Varying-Coefficient Spatial Panel Model of the Belt and Road Countries

作　　者：刘玉 唐礼智[2,3,4] 金梦洁 Liu Yu;Tang Lizhi;Jin Mengjie

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学数理学院、教育大数据与教育决策实验室 [2]厦门大学经济学院 [3]厦门大学国内合作办公室 [4]厦门大学智慧与绿色发展研究中心 [5]南京财经大学营销与物流管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2023年第3期85-99,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划一般项目“半参数空间面板模型的变量选择研究”(FJ2020B063);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“高铁网络对收入相对贫困的影响:效应、机制及政策设计研究”(21YJC790055)。

摘　　要：本文采用半参数变系数空间面板模型实证研究东道国制度环境、市场规模和我国“一带一路”对外直接投资之间的非线性时空关系。首先,提出基于截面似然函数的模型估计方法;其次,从理论层面探究估计量的渐近性质和有限样本表现;最后,分别构建以东道国市场规模为解释变量、东道国制度环境为变系数协变量、我国对外直接投资为被解释变量的参数空间面板模型和半参数变系数空间面板模型,分析东道国市场规模如何随制度环境变化影响我国对外直接投资规模。研究发现:半参数变系数空间面板模型估计量具有良好的渐近理论和小样本性质;在空间维度上,我国对“一带一路”国家的投资相互依赖,表现为“第三国”溢出效应;我国对外直接投资非线性依赖于东道国市场规模,表现为一条关于东道国制度环境的“倒U”型曲线;我国对外直接投资具有制度距离接近性偏好,即我国更偏向于投资制度环境相似的国家,稳健性检验支持了这一结论。This paper uses a semi-parametric varying-coefficient spatial panel model to empirically study the nonlinear spatio-temporal relationship among host countries' institutional environment,market size and China's outward foreign direct investment along the “Belt and Road”.We propose an estimation method based on profile likelihood function.The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimators are studied,and we respectively construct parametric spatial panel models and semi-parametric varying-coefficient spatial panel models which include host countries' market size as the explanatory variable,host countries' institutional environment as the covariate,and China's foreign direct investment as the explained variable,to explore how the market size of the host country affects the scale of China's outward foreign direct investment with the change of institutional environment.The research shows that,first,the proposed estimators of semi-parametric varying-coefficient spatial panel model have good asymptotic theory and finite sample properties.Second,in the spatial dimension,China's outward foreign direct investments in the “Belt and Road” countries are interdependent,which manifests as a “third country” spillover effect.Third,China's outward foreign direct investment non-linearly depends on the market size of the host countries,which manifests as an “inverted U” curve of the host countries' institutional environment.Fourth,China' s outward foreign direct investment has a preference for institutional distance proximity,and the robustness tests support this conclusion.

关 键 词：一带一路 制度环境 对外直接投资 半参数模型 空间自相关 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]