基于SEIR-S的民航机务人员不安全行为传播仿真研究  

Simulation Research on Unsafe Behavior Propagation of Civil Aviation Maintenance Personnel Based on SEIR-S

作　　者：李丽[1] 曹玉宽 赵营 陈瑶 LI Li;CAO Yukuan;ZHAO Ying;CHEN Yao(Safety Science and Technology Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第4期92-98,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122018F009)。

摘　　要：为研究民航机务人员不安全行为传播特征,探究不安全行为传播的治理手段,以SEIR传染病模型为基础,结合行为传播特征,构建机务人员不安全行为传播SEIR-S模型。运用Netlogo软件仿真模拟不安全行为在机务人员群体中传播的过程,探究不同条件下各状态人员占比变化关系。结果表明:SEIR-S模型能够反映机务人员不安全行为传播的总体趋势,潜伏率、感染率、免疫率、复染率对传播过程均有影响,潜伏率、感染率越高,不安全行为传播速度越快;免疫率越高,不安全行为感染者比例越低;复染率越高,不安全行为传播时间越长。因此,可以采取措施控制以上参数,抑制不安全行为在机务群体中的传播。In order to study the characteristics of unsafe behaviour transmission among civil aviation flight attendants and explore the means of management of unsafe behaviour transmission,the SEIR-S model of unsafe behaviour transmission among flight attendants was constructed based on the SEIR infectious disease model and combined with behavioural transmission characteristics.Netlogo software is used to simulate the process of unsafe behaviour transmission in the aircrew group and explore the relationship between the proportion of personnel in each state under different conditions.The results show that SEIR-S can reflect the general trend of unsafe behavior transmission among fight crews.The latent rate,infection rate,immunization rate,and reinfection rate all affect the transmission process.The higher the latent rate and infection rate,the faster the spread of unsafe behavior.The faster;the higher the immunization rate,the lower the proportion of unsafe behavior infected people;the higher the counterinfection rate,the longer the unsafe behavior spread.Therefore,measures can be taken to control the above parameters and suppress the spread of unsafe behaviors in the maintenance group.

关 键 词：机务维修 SEIR模型 Netlogo仿真 不安全行为传播 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]