考虑测量误差的两阶段Wiener建模与可靠性分析  

Two Stage Wiener Modeling and Reliability Analysis Considering Measurement Errors

作　　者：高新 叶楠 周坤[1,2] 陶友瑞 GAO Xin;YE Nan;ZHOU Kun;TAO Yourui(State Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin,300132;School of Mechanical Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin,300401)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学省部共建电工装备可靠性与智能化国家重点实验室,天津300132 [2]河北工业大学机械工程学院,天津300401

出　　处：《中国机械工程》2023年第9期1067-1076,共10页China Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFB1301300);河北省教育厅基金重点项目(ZD2020180)。

摘　　要：针对现有的多阶段Wiener退化建模与可靠性分析中,大多忽略测量误差且未考虑退化过程中变点差异性的问题,建立了一种考虑测量误差的两阶段Wiener模型。将极大似然估计法和多维搜索算法相结合求出测量误差的估计值。考虑到变点的差异性,基于BIC最小准则估计出变点区间,同时根据变点位置确定漂移系数和扩散系数的估计值,再利用SSE最小准则求出变点的估计值,给出了基于变点分布区间的可靠性评估方法。最后,基于所建模型对RV减速器传动精度退化数据进行了实例分析。考虑测量误差及变点位置对退化建模的不确定性影响,进一步提高了产品的可靠性评估精度,能对产品的寿命做出更精准的预测。In the existing multi-stage Wiener degradation modeling and reliability analysis,most of them ignored the measurement errors and did not consider the differences of change points in the degradation processes.Considering measurement errors,a two-stage Wiener model was established and the maximum likelihood estimation method and multidimensional search algorithm were combined to obtain the estimated values of measurement errors.Considering the differences of change points,the change point interval was estimated based on BIC minimum criterion,at the same time,the estimated values of drift coefficient and diffusion coefficient were determined according to the positions of change points,and then the estimated values of change points were obtained by using SSE minimum criterion.A reliability evaluation method was given based on the distribution interval of change points.Finally,based on the established model,an example of RV reducer transmission accuracy degradation data was analyzed.Considering the uncertainty impacts of measurement errors and change point positions on degradation modeling,the reliability evaluation accuracy of the products is further improved and the life of the products may be predicted more accurately.

关 键 词：多阶段退化 测量误差 WIENER过程 变点分布区间 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]