多维复苏与倡导BCG发展模式——泰国2022年回顾与2023年展望  

Multi-Dimensional Recovery and BCG Development Model:Thailand Retrospect on 2022 and Prospect on 2023

作　　者：袁春生[1,2] Yuan Chunsheng

机构地区：[1]云南省社会科学院 [2]中国(昆明)南亚东南亚研究院泰国研究所

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2023年第1期1-22,共22页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国西南边境地区安全稳定新态势及风险防范研究”(19BKS083)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：2022年,泰国政府有效应对新冠疫情冲击,开启了经济、社会、外交等多维度复苏之路。政治方面,受执政联盟内斗、反对派持续攻势、修宪案制衡和民意支持率以及各政党角逐新一轮大选准备等因素叠加影响,泰国政局总体保持平稳但也呈现诸多不确定性。经济方面,采取制定《第十三个国民经济和社会发展计划(2023—2027年)》,实施“生物循环绿色”经济发展行动计划,推进“东部经济走廊”建设等系列措施,主要宏观经济指标加速上扬,除了建筑业,贸易经济、旅游业、外国投资、数字经济等各产业领域持续复苏并取得新发展。社会方面,劳动就业、居民消费和民生福祉等主要社会指标发展趋好,但控枪、禁毒及减少交通事故等仍是亟待解决的社会难题。外交方面,立足提升国际影响力,突出加强经济外交,持续推进多边合作,着力谋求在气候变化、粮食安全和能源安全等国际事务中发挥建设性作用。延续大国平衡的外交传统,平衡和稳定与中国、美国、日本等国家的战略合作关系,加强与东盟及其成员国的友好合作关系。展望2023年,新一轮大选是泰国的焦点,同时受全球经济持续低迷和地缘政治紧张局势影响,泰国2023年政治、经济、社会和外交等发展仍然面临不确定性风险。In 2022,the Thai government effectively responded to the Covid-19 epidemic,blazed a path of multidimensional economic,social and diplomatic recovery,and achieved its expected goals.Politically,uncertainty about political parties'campaign policies and intentions makes the generally stable political undercurrent in Thailand in spite of ruling coalition infighting,continuous opposition offensives,the Constitutional Amendment,public opinions as well as preparation for the new round of elections in various political parties;economically,the Thai government has taken a series of measures to stimulate economic growth,includingformulating the 13th National Economic and Social Development Plan(NESDP)(2023-2027),implementing the Bio-Circular-Green(BCG)Economy Model and promoting the Eastern Economic Corridor(EEC)Development Plan.As a result,there was accelerated growth inmajor macroeconomic indicators,and the trade economy,tourism,foreign investment,digital economy and other industries continued to recover and make new progress;in society,major indicators,such as employment,consumer spending and people's well-being have shown good progress.However,gun control,drug control and traffic accidents remain difficult problems in social development;diplomatically,in order to increase its international influence,Thailand has focused on strengthening economic diplomacy,continuously advancing multilateral cooperation,and striving to play a constructive role in international affairs such as climate change,food security and energy security.Thailand continued its diplomatic tradition of balancing major powers,balancing and stabilizing its strategic cooperative relations with China,the United States,Japan,and other countries,and strengthening its friendly cooperative relations with ASEAN and its member countries.2023 is a crucial year for Thailand's post-epidemic recovery and a new round of general elections is the focus of Thailand.Meanwhile,due to the continuing global economic downturn and geopolitical tensions,Thailand's political,ec

关 键 词：“泰国4.0”战略 BCG模式 EEC 泰国大选 中泰关系 

分 类 号：D733[政治法律—政治学] D832[政治法律—中外政治制度] F133.2[经济管理—世界经济]