公共危机预警情报模型研究  

Research on Modeling for the Crisis Early Warning Intelligence of Public Management

作　　者：魏晨[1] 赵冰峰 吴晨生 Wei Chen

机构地区：[1]北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所,北京100044 [2]北京科英坦利咨询有限公司,北京100044

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第5期126-134,共9页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目“嵌入式协同决策情报在非常规突发事件中的服务机制”的成果,项目编号:21GLC041。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]情报是研究重大突发公共危机预警问题的重要支撑,而信息空间论是近年来新兴的理论范式,旨在分析社会中信息和知识的生产交换问题,与重大公共危机预警问题研究高度契合。因此,探讨公共危机预警情报服务模型,有助于增强情报工作服务应急预警的能力和水平,更为研究公共危机治理提供新的思路。[方法/过程]首先,界定了公共危机预警情报的内涵,指出在危机预警工作中,情报是基础,研判是关键,方法是工具。其次,基于公共危机事件演变过程,运用情报生产链,构建了公共危机预警情报模型,并着重对危机情报源、筛选原则、危机信号发现/挖掘、预警情报等级划分进行概述。最后,通过三鹿集团毒奶粉事件验证和阐述所构建的公共危机预警情报模型。[结果/结论]模型从技术、管理和组织三个层面分析了安全情报感知、智库协同和匹配化情报应用的动态协作过程,进而为建立常态化危机应急预警机制与公共危机治理体系提供了多层次的动态危机预警情报服务。[Purpose/significance]Intelligence is an important aspect in the study of major public crisis early warning.As a merging theoretical paradigm recently,information space theory aims to analyze the production and exchange of information and knowledge in our society,which is highly integrating with the research on major public crisis early warning.Therefore,discussion on public crisis early warning information service model will help to enhance the ability and level of information work to serve crisis early warning,and provide new thoughts for the study of public crisis management.[Method/process]Firstly,the connotation of crisis warning intelligence needs to be defined.It should be noted that intelligence is the foundation,research is the key and methodology is the tool in crisis early warning work.Secondly,based on the evolution of emergencies,the intelligence production chain is used to construct a crisis warning intelligence model.It also focuses on an overview of crisis intelligence sources,screening principles,crisis signal discovery/mining,and the classification of early warning intelligence levels.Finally,the constructed model is validated and elaborated through Sanglu Milk Powder Event.[Result/conclusion]The model analyses the dynamic collaborative process of security intelligence awareness,think tank collaboration and matched intelligence applications in terms of technology,management and organization,which in turn provides a service of multi-level dynamic crisis warning intelligence for the establishment of a normalized crisis emergency warning mechanism and management system.

关 键 词：情报 公共危机预警 服务模型 危机治理 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学] G350[文化科学—情报学]